2010 State of the Future

by Jerome C. Glenn, Theodore J. Gordon, and Elizabeth Florescu

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"Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!"
                              Technological Forecasting & Social Change

 

"The State of the Future Report has inspired and continues to instigate our foundation’s work on the interdependent paths of global development and future progress. It is one of the rare examples of integrated thinking on global challenges that needs to be addressed if we are to enhance the quality of life for present and for future generations."
                              Liz Mohn, Vice-Chair of the Executive Board, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Germany

Paperback with CD

83-page print and an attached CD containing about 7,000 pages of research behind the print edition and The Millennium Project's 14 years of cumulative research and methods.

Executive Summary: English, German, Spanish

See articles in Ray Kurzweil's Blog: "The State of the Future", Wired: "Futurists ponder planet, avoid despairing...",
and others in the "press room"

ISBN: 978-0-9818941-3-3
Library of Congress Control Number: 98-646672
Price: $49.95 US dollars plus shipping

Release date: August 1, 2010

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Table of Contents

 List of Figures and Boxes

 What is New in This Year’s Report

Invaluable insights into the future for the United Nations, its Member States, and civil society.
                              Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General, United Nations

One of the rare examples of integrated thinking on global challenges that needs to be addressed if we are to enhance the quality of life for present and for future generations
                              Liz Mohn, Vice-Chair of the Executive Board, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Germany

Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, should read this incredible document, period!
                              Technological Forecasting & Social Change

The State of the Future continues as the best introduction--by far--to major global issues and long-term remedies.
                              Future Survey

The State of the Future is an ambitious meeting of research and vision, presenting a grand-scale sweep of today’s world and its difficulties.
                              The Futurist

The Millennium Project is the world’s preeminent think tank.
                              Dr. Abdullah Al Kara, Chairman, Knowledge and Human Development Authority, Dubai

Ten of the twelve annual State of the Future reports were selected by Future Survey as among the year’s best books on the future.

This “report card on the future” distills the collective intelligence of over 2,700 leading scientists, futurists, scholars, and policy advisors who work for governments, corporations, non-governmental organizations, universities, and international organizations. The 2010 State of the Future comes in two parts: a 83-page print executive summary and an attached CD containing about 7,000 pages of research behind the print edition and the Millennium Project's 14 years of cumulative research and methods. Some unique features not available in other global assessments include:

  • Building Collective Intelligence Systems
  • 15 Global Challenges
  • Producing the State if the Future Index Using the International Futures Model
  • Emerging Environmental Security Issues
  • Latin America 2030
  • Futures Research and Gaps Around the World
  • 800 Annotated Scenario Sets

It is produced by the Millennium Project with its 35 Nodes (groups of futurists and organizations) around the world, which collects, feeds back, and assesses insights from creative and knowledgeable people on emerging crises, opportunities, strategic priorities, and the feasibility of actions.

“Although the future has been getting better for most of the world over the past 20 years, the global recession has lowered the State of the Future Index for the next 10 years. The global financial crisis and climate change planning may be helping humanity to re-think its assumptions and move from its often self-centered adolescence to a more globally responsible adulthood, states the report. “This year’s annual State of the Future is an extraordinarily rich distillation of iformation for those who care about the world and its future. It describes in non-technical language what the educated person should kno0 about the world and what to do to improve it'' says co-author and Millennium Project Director. Jerome C. Glenn.


Table of Contents

The 2010 State of the Future is composed of two parts: print and CD. The print book contains the executive summary of each of the studies conducted in 2009–10. The enclosed CD of about 7,000 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in the print section.

Table of Contents - Print Section

Table of Contents - CD

List of Figures and Boxes
 

Table of Contents - Print Section

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Executive Summary - 1

  1. Global Challenges- 11
  2. Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the International Futures Model- 43
  3. Building Collective Intelligence Systems- 53
  4. Emerging Environmental Security Issues- 63
  5. Latin America 2030 -71
  6. Futures Research and Gaps Around the World- 79

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes


Table of Contents - CD Section


Executive Summary (10 pages)

1. Global Challenges (1,400 pages)

2. State of the Future Index Section
2.1 Global SOFI (341 pages)
2.2 National SOFIs (105 pages)
2.3 Producing State of the Future Indexes Using the
International Futures Model (41 pages)
2.4 Global Challenges Assessment (94 pages)

3. Global Scenarios
3.1 Normative Scenario to the Year 2050 (21 pages)
3.2 Exploratory Scenarios (41 pages)
3.3 Very Long-Range Scenarios—1,000 years (23 pages)
3.4 Counterterrorism—Scenarios, Actions, and Policies (40 pages)
3.5 Science and Technology 2025 Global Scenarios (21 pages)
3.6 Global Energy Scenarios 2020 (103 pages)
3.7 Middle East Peace Scenarios (91 pages)

4. Governance-Related Studies
4.1 Government Future Strategy Units and Some Potentials for
International Strategic Coordination (20 pages)
4.2 Some Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the
Next 20 Years (192 pages)
4.3 Global Goals for the Year 2050 (24 pages)
4.4 World Leaders on Global Challenges (42 pages)

5. Science and Technology
5.1 Future S&T Management and Policy Issues (400 pages)
5.2 Nanotechnology: Future Military Environmental Health
Considerations (21 pages)

 

6. Building Collective Intelligence Systems
6.1 Global Energy Collective Intelligence (20 pages)
6.2 Two Applications of Collective Intelligence (Climate Change Situation Room,
Early Warning for a Prime Minister Office) (10 pages)
6.3 Future of Ontologists


7. Futures Studies around the World
7.1 Latin America 2030 (280 pages)
7.2 Futures Research and Gaps around the World (10 pages)

8. Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
8.1 Measuring Sustainable Development (61 pages)
8.2 Quality and Sustainability of Life Indicators (9 pages)
8.3 Partnership for Sustainable Development (48 pages)
8.4 A Marshall Plan for Haiti (12 pages)

9. Environmental Security
9.1 Emerging Environmental Security Issues (1,033 pages)
9.2 Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (42 pages)
9.3 Environmental Security: UN Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (113 pages)
9.4 Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)
—UN Perspectives (31 pages)
9.5 Environmental Security and Potential Military Requirements (44 pages)

10. Education and Learning 2030 (59 pages)

11. Future Ethical Issues (69 pages)

12. Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures Research in Decision-Making (55 pages)

Appendices (2,700 pages)
Appendix A: Millennium Project Participants
Appendix B: State of the Future Index Section
Appendix C: Global Scenarios
Appendix D: Governance-Related Studies
Appendix E: Science and Technology
Appendix F: Building Collective Intelligence Systems
Appendix F: Futures Studies around the World
Appendix G: Measuring and Promoting Sustainable Development
Appendix H: Environmental Security Studies
Appendix I: Education and Learning 2030
Appendix J: Future Ethical Issues
Appendix K: Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures
Research in Decisionmaking
Appendix L: Real-Time Delphi Process
Appendix M: Annotated Bibliography of About 700 Scenario Sets
Appendix N: Other Annotated Bibliographies:
Index of Global Reports 2009-2010
Ethics-Related Organizations
Global Energy Scenarios and Related Research
Women/Gender Organizations
Appendix O: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of the State of the Future
and The Millennium Project
Appendix P: Publications of The Millennium Project
Acronyms and Abbreviations

 

Acronyms and Abbreviations

List of Figures and Boxes

Figures
Figure 1. Comparison of 2009 Baseline and Recession SOFIs
Figure 2. Global trends in freedom
Figure 3. Regional Internet population growth, 2000-2009
Figure 4. Share of people living on less than $1.25 a day (%)
Figure 5. Artist’s conception of a Global Change Situation Room
Figure 6. Women in National Parliaments (percentage)
Figure 7. Corruption Index versus GDP/capita
Figure 8. Global challenges and SOFI process
Figure 9. 2009 State of the Future Index (compared to 2007, zero shifted)
Figure 10. 2009 State of the Future Index (no recession)
Figure 11. Unemployment (%)
Figure 12. 2009 State of the Future Index (recession model)
Figure 13. Comparison of 2009 Baseline and Recession SOFIs
Figure 14. 2009 State of the Future Index with TIA (recession model)
Figure 15. Economic Sysytem Elelments, Region Demographic of Participants
Figure 16. Economic Sysytem Elelments, Sectoral Demographic of Participants
Figure 17. Global Peace Index 2009
Figure 18. MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: temperature increase over the next 100 years
Figure 19. Number of parties to multilateral environmental agreements, 1975–2009
Figure 20. Demographics of Participants in the 2008–09 program
Figure 21. Demographics of the Participants since 1996

Boxes
Box 1. What Is New in This Year’s Report
Box 2. Variables included in the SOFI scenarios
Box 3. Some accords and regulations related to environmental security recently adopted, strengthened, in negotiation, or proposed

Tables
Table 1. The elements presented in the Elements of the Next Global Economic System over the Next 20 Years study rank-ordered by average of how important the element is for improving the human condition
Table 2. A Simple Taxonomy of Futures Research Methods


What Is New in This Year’s Report

  • Executive Summary of this year's research and update on the global situation.
  • Both the short and the long versions of the 15 Global Challenges were updated.
  • Enhanced capability of the State of the Future Index by its introduction into the University of Denver's International Futures (IFs) modeling system, thus allowing the calculation and comparison of the SOFI for all nations covered in the model.
  • Two applications of building collective intelligence systems: a Climate Change Situation Room (in South Korea), and an Early Warning System with SOFI capability for the Office of the Prime Minister of Kuwait.
  • More than 300 items related to environmental security were identified, assessed, and organized over the past year. A distilled version is presented in Chapter 4 and the full text of about 2,000 items identified since 2002 is available in CD Chapter 9.1.
  • International assessment of developments that might have a significant impact for the future of Latin America by the year 2030. A distillation of the study is presented in Chapter 5, with full results included in the CD Chapter 7.
  • A survey of The Millennium Project Nodes' futures research activities, with assessment of trends and potential gaps or insufficiently addressed themes in futures studies.
  • The CD includes details and research that support the print version; it also includes the complete text of previous Millennium Project research:
    • Detailed description of each of the 15 Global Challenges
    • Evolution and Computation of the State of the Future Index
      Global exploratory, normative, and very-long range scenarios, along with an introduction describing their development
    • Concept and concrete applications of Collective Intelligence systems
    • Science and Technology, and Global Energy Scenarios and supporting studies
    • Assessment of governance-related issues and future strategy units in selected governments
    • Environmental security definitions, threats, related treaties; UN military doctrine on environmental issues; potential military environmental crimes and the International Criminal Court; changing environmental security military requirements in 2010–25.
    • Two studies to create indexes and maps of the status of sustainable development.
    • An international review of the concept of creating a "Partnership for Sustainable Development."
    • Study of factors required for successful implementation of futures research in decisionmaking.
    • An Annotated Scenarios Bibliography of over 800 scenario sets totaling over 2,100 scenarios

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