Environmental Security Study

Appendix E. Related Issues and Opportunities from the Millennium Project

E-1 Related Opportunities:

From the 15 global opportunities identified by the Millennium Project:

1. Achieving sustainable development

2. Increasing acceptance of global long-term perspectives in policy making

3. Expanding potential for scientific and technological breakthroughs

4. Transforming authoritarian regimes to democracies

5. Encouraging diversity and shared ethical values

6. Reducing the rate of population growth

7. Evolving strategies for world peace and security

8. Developing alternative sources of energy

9. Globalizing the convergence of information and communications technologies

10. Increasing advances in biotechnology

11. Encouraging economic development through ethical market economies

12. Increasing economic autonomy of women and other groups

13. Promoting the inquiry into new and sometimes counter-intuitive ideas

14. Pursuing promising space projects

15. Improving institutions

The following are related to the Environmental Security:

Opportunity 1 - Achieving sustainable development

Never before has world opinion been so united on a single goal as it is on achieving sustainable development. Environmental consciousness is pervasive; the concept of sustainability has affected politics and national decision-making everywhere; and the Kyoto Summit on Climate Change has intensified these views. Concepts like industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology, and zero emissions research are rapidly becoming accepted. International cooperation among ecological research centers with standardized data protocols and integration of global environmental research and satellite data are making it possible to model and monitor the earth-as-a-whole. Ecological conditions have improved where vigorous environmental protection programs have been implemented. There is an unprecedented opportunity to galvanize global opinion into actions.


Never before has the world been as aware of a common threat to humanity as the unsustainability of present patterns of resource use and development... SD represents the third "global revolution" (after agricultural and industrial revolution) and it is a process for at least several decades and it is necessary "to keep direction"… It will occur in due course (although not without effort); it will represent a triumph of the human spirit (in much the same way as the aversion of nuclear war). It is inevitable… Although the world may agree on the general goal of sustainable development (S-D), the Kyoto conference on Climate Change showed a fundamental split between the First and Third Worlds on implementation.

The Third World argues that the first has already developed to a plateau that will allow them to cutback on emissions and that in their development process they have already contributed the majority of greenhouse gasses. The Third World has not yet reached that plateau of development. Limits on emissions during the early development process have a different economic impact than limits during the more mature development plateau. Limits can be equally applied when nations have equal development. Limits help insure first world's stability but can prevent the Third World's growth. But a deal can be made. The Third Word wants insurance that they will have the technology (through technology cooperation, loans, and grants) to achieve cleaner economic growth, then they will agree to limits... Japan offers the lowest possible interest rates for "green" technology projects. USAID has proposed $10 billion in anti-greenhouse activities, others will come... Common recognition of sustainable development as the top goal has been reached only among governmental sectors, administrative leaders and intellectuals... Although the term "sustainable development" (popularized by the Brundtland Commission in its 1987 report, Our Common Future), focused on environmental sustainability, the concept really has four interdependent and necessary elements: financial, economic, environmental, and social. The actions listed below in this section did not acknowledge the other three... SD is "not just environment, but also development" in developing regions etc. The description should reflect aspects of economy, sociology and some geopolitical views (geopolitical regions)

Sustainability has three components: livability, employment, and social cohesion, whereas local authorities consider it means: water, sewerage, and power. Planning is a 20-year cycle and politics a 2-5 year one; sustainable development tends to fall between the two… There are two main inaccuracies in the way the concept of sustainable development is addressed today: 1) It is one-side oriented, only taking into consideration the human influence on the ecosystem, when in reality, it is an active interrelationship between the two - and 2) misapprehension of sustainable development as a development without crises, disregarding the cyclic dynamic of the social-environmental evolution, which history proved, inevitably includes crises. It is an effective relationship between the technological, economical, social and ecological crises... After the Amazonian rain forest, the Congo basin will be the next focus for such trade-offs to be considered... Sustainable development answers the needs of the present generation without hindering the development of future generations. International strategy for sustainable development is hampered by institutional and contractual problems related to international law, social structures, and jurisdictional difficulties within the UN system. The EU has made great advances by recognizing Agenda 21 and introducing sustainability policies in transportation, agriculture, energy, tourism, and industry. Italy has introduced occupational and economic benefits through the development of technological innovation and environmental policies such as the destruction of cars older than 10 years, recycling (paper, glass, and plastics, and protecting Natural Parks).

Anhui Province, in China, has reforested the entire province in 8 years. It closed 475 enterprises that seriously polluted the Hui River in 1996. By the end of 1997, 229 of these had completed their pollution control, 49 were still constructing pollution control facilities, and 30 were permanently closed or switched to a new industry.

This is only a scientific-technological approach, missing the political, philosophical, and axiological one. It is necessary to include the change of political patterns and economic indicators, and the values related to the sustainable living and the acceptation of conclusions of the Dobjiš Conference /1991/ and Dobjiš Assessment - Dobjiš Conference was the basic impulse for sustainable development, but was forgotten…. When corporations' stock price is affected by their impact on the environment, then you will see corporations change more dramatically. If corporations were listed high or low for their exposure to environmental liabilities, then stock prices could be affected.

Sustainable Development and Ethical Finance and Capitalism are interlocked as one issue. This interlinkage is extremely relevant in today's business world…. Include agriculture, nutritional sustainability, food security need to be included. Greed makes it unsustainable in developed countries and poverty makes it so in developing countries…. SD is not priority on national political agenda, countries have their particular interests…. Only a small part of the society is focusing on sustainable development. In the Third World countries and also in postcommunist countries, sustainable development is of peripheral interest. Concepts such as industrial ecology, ecological engineering, nature-oriented technology and zero emissions research are ignored. There are no research institutions oriented on these concepts, the governments and the managers, the enterprises, have no interest in it.

Sustainability is a real goal and one that is attainable, but there's a long way to go to accomplish it. Latin America is doing much better than in the past as their population growth has come under control and they have managed to create linkages to their own resource base... The prevailing attitude is one of trying to find external solutions, rather than changing one's way of living... Global eco-crises take place when the rhythm of population growth is faster than the dynamic of production. In its effort to satisfy the growing needs of population, the technology develops uncontrolled, at the expense of the environment...

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

About half the actions suggested below repeat and hence reinforce those covered in Agenda 21. (They are: 1.6, 1.7, 1.8, 1.11, 1.13, 1.14, 1.15, 1.16, 1.17, 1.19, 1.25, and the second part of 1.5.) The new suggestions can be thought of as being complementary to Agenda 21. Additionally, this section adds to the sustainable development discussions a distilled range of thinking that can help identify areas of agreement for action...

1.1 Further develop models and simulations to forecast potential environmental "hot spots".

This should be developed by the UN Office for Sustainable Development in cooperation with UNEP and results should be reported to the UN General Assembly...The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is doing this. [NASA's Mission to Planet Earth, now called Earth Science, is integrating satellite data with earth-based data to create global models for monitoring changes.]... Yes, but once we get the top 8 or 10 hot spots, we have to get together on the actions and set priorities... Forecasts are the starting point of sustainable development, but we should not forecast only " hot spots". We should develop complex forecasts that take in consideration the nature and the cycle of "hot spots" and have a picture of the future as a whole and point out the "hot spots" as these are manifestations of eco-crises…. The most significant area in which sustainability is and will remain a problem is the health care sector. Quality health care is essentially becoming a human right all over the world.

In developing countries, the national environmental units should act after initiation by regional political and substantive organizations... Use different term than "hot spots." "What if" statements leading to scenarios have more powerful influences on decisions than models…. Developing processes to solve problems is more important than creating models…. Shortage of good science, and accessibility to data prevents its achievement. Environment is also too complex for this…. This action should be linked with forecasts and programs for development. We need goals that are international and national, long and medium- range with special mechanisms for their development and implementation... World society should think about Earth as a global ecosystem. The countries that might be defined as "hot spots" do not have financial resources for harmonious development. We need international foundations. Not only temporary international foundations to solve temporary/partial problems, but a system of international foundations for early warning and implementation of global, trans-national eco-policies...

1.2 Create (via UNEP, ICSU, and possibly WTO) international scientific boards to define terms, standards, and measurements necessary for commonly applied environmental policies such as tax incentives, labels, and others listed below. Begin with the easiest standards such as protection of resources like forests and fisheries, and replacement of depleted stocks.

This is critical for real collaboration... Use teleconferences, or Internet…. Since the use of labels for products is effective, it is essential to work out common international criteria…. Maybe IPCC can do this, but it will be hard to get global agreement. We should also define the economic value of watersheds, forests, etc…. WTO should create and enforce environmental standards in trade. Developing countries will see this as a new form of protectionism. UNEP should do the research but would need a new treaty to have enforcement powers. In the meantime, WTO is the only potential leader to enforce results of such research...Theoretically it is a good action, but in practice, the standards that are acceptable for USA or Germany are not acceptable for Russia, China or Latin American countries. It is not possible to change the technological base in these countries immediately...

1.3 Include sanctions and enforcement mechanisms and procedures with any environmental policy recommendation; e.g. the Framework Convention on Climate Change should include ways to punish offenders.

This is on the agenda of the next Climate Change conference…. The UN Office of Sustainable Development working with the Secretary General of the UN can create treaties with enforcement powers that recognized both the poorer and richer regions' interests... ECOSOC should lead the policy for socially binding sanctions...The sanctions should be commensurable with compensation for harm. These sanctions should be based on the information of international ecosystem scanning not regulated by countries... The funds raised from sanctions should be transferred to the international foundations to finance environmental programs…. International law is a mix of politics and rules - even the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty is only enforced through appeals to the UN Security Council. It is better to have agreed terms without enforcement powers than to have no agreement...Fines are the only way to punish offenders. Sanctions against a whole country could be counter productive and punish peoples' development. The Ozone treaty worked pretty well, but there is a black market in CFS's…. Enforcement mechanisms in the WTO and other UN organizations are necessary.

Governments could deny political insurance (OPIC in the US) for businesses in their country working in another country on environmentally unsound projects…. Create positive collaboration and incentives to create a new way of doing business…. Third world engagement is missing…. It is not workable in developing countries that are struggling to generate enough food and jobs.

1.4 Spread ISO 14000 to more countries.

ISO 14000 is a quality control and performance-tracking mechanism. Inherently, ISO 14001 is a certification of good management, not of environmental stewardship or sustainability. ISO 14000's success will depend greatly on how good the underlying EMS goals -- established independently by each participating corporation -- are. ISO 14000 has great potential if companies can be motivated to orient their EMS goals by scientifically established international, national, regional, and local priorities. Procedures and methods should be developed to: a) establish such sustainability priorities through scientifically advised, participatory decision-making; b) translate priorities into EMS goals; and c) report and aggregate EMS achievements as a component of community sustainability indicators. Add to ISO 14000 the initiative of the implementation of ecologically sound production or sustainable business frameworks (such as The Natural Step) and the Business Charter for Sustainable Development of the International Chamber of Commerce (<http://www.iccwbo.org/Cust/html/The%20Business%20Charter.htm>).

Such frameworks may be seen as complementary to ISO 14000 and also can be implemented instead of ISO 14000. They are non-exclusive, and since all of these are voluntary and quite flexible, their degree of success in each case depends much more on the sincerity and commitment of the adopting enterprise than on specific content and formulation of the framework. ISO 14000 certainly is the most formalistic of these instruments, but what counts the most in the end is the extent to which management and the work force adopt the spirit of the plan and live by it...ISO 14000 is fully voluntary now. But for those companies that adopt it, it can save money...Ecological standards should not be common for all, but adapted to countries' conditions... Link to international assistance and relations. Regional banks (ADB in Africa, etc. could do the training but would need political leadership of the OAU.)...This is a good way to track your progress and current situation, but not a good way into the future... Motorola in Scotland realized a cost saving of 2 million per year when they adopted the standard…. Good, but can become also instrument of trade discrimination…. Very important, has autocatalytic effect.

1.5 Initiate tariffs and/or taxes on polluting products or technologies, with revenues collected to be used to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safe technologies; provide incentives for environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.

This will require an international umpire like UNEP and WTO...NGOs will have to lobby governments to create this via trade agreements...Yes, you have to create the punitive actions to generate the income for the incentives. Governments and corporations should pool money to give grants to create more environmentally friendly products... We should tax resource usage and not incomes. There should be different rates for different energy sources. Full cost accounting should become the norm. It is stupid for government to subsidize tobacco, a single-use plant which has a high impact on the environment and pay for cancer research and treatment, while banning hemp, a multi-use plant with a low impact on the environment...Some preferential measures on tariffs ought to be worked out for developing countries…. It is occurring to some degree now…. There are limited possibilities internationally…. Expensive, developed countries should take the lead.

1.6 Establish a system of national accounts that includes the economic impact of the depletion of natural resources.

This is very important, but resources economy and environmental economy are not yet fully understood by the public…. The system of national accounts, which is adopted by about 50 countries today, does not reflect the ecological domain. We should estimate the ecological problems, the resources engaged to solve them and estimate the results.

A USGS report tried to establish the quantitative basis for such a system. .... World Bank and the regional development banks that currently train governments in environmental impact assessment could add this element...In Africa, this will require OAU leadership to give mandates to regional organizations like UNECA and ADB for technical assistance and training...

1.7 Encourage the placement of labels on all consumer products providing information that indicates whether the product has been produced in a sustainable manner.

Should be done with leadership from the government environmental agency... Add communications plan to make sure the public understand the labels... With full information people can make better decisions... This is trivial but OK…. It would be too expensive and bureaucratic to label all consumer products, instead encourage voluntary labeling…. Companies should create their own labels, like printing "recycled paper" to promote themselves rather than wait for government to impose labels... Swiss Air promotes its food as being produced by environmentally sound agricultural practices.

1.8 Increase R&D budgets for projects related to sustainable development, possibly with mandated fund contributions by all countries.

Why just governments? Make it a world philanthropic organization that also includes corporate contributions…. This foundation might be funded by government contributions calculated proportionally to the GDP and taxes and tariffs as mentioned at action 1.5…. Some countries can't pay, so don't make it mandatory. Use environmental offsets or incentives for corporations to provide technology to help developing countries leapfrog polluting practices…. Better to lobby governments to promote R&D via tax incentives, than imposing a budget.

The R&D for sustainable development is complex and new, hence, it needs substantial financial resources. A Global Ecological Foundation should also support the theoretical basis of sustainable development as well as actions to address hot spots…. Lead by international agency, possibly UNEP…. Skeptical

1.9 Substantially increase funding for solar energy research (e.g. by a factor of 50) initiated by private and state energy producers, governments, academic and scientific applied research institutions.

Not necessarily by 50, but it certainly should increase while decreasing subsidies for more environmentally dangerous sources. Energy production and distribution should be decentralized as much as possible... Yes, but make it substantially worthwhile for institutions to get involved...start with a UN General Assembly resolution to involve country contributions to an international agency, possibly UNEP... It is only one direction, the problem is more global and should be addressed by global intellectual and financial effort to develop new sources of energy that can replace the traditional ones.

Getting cost-effective solar energy recognized by the market will be the best way to attract further research funds.

1.10 Create tradable pollution permits that regulate global emission limits for countries or industrial sectors.

The Kyoto Protocol agreed to this in principle. Governments are working on the details now to be addressed at the next meeting on Climate Change. The US has successful experience in this with tradable sulfur dioxide credits. Extending this approach internationally is difficult since there are so many different political systems and there are serious equity issues between industrial and developing countries on apportioning permits ...Yes, but set ceilings.

The sulfur dioxide tradable permits are working well... The modalities of the permit mechanism must be carefully tailored to the type of emission and industry, and there are substantial risks in setting quotas and in the possibility of unrecognized loopholes…. A new mechanism - the International Bank for Environmental Settlements - was discussed to provide a framework…. Training for industrialists is essential.

1.11 Further develop ecologically based agriculture to reduce large consumption of water, energy, and other material inputs in agriculture.

This should be the top priority... Put emphases on efficiency not reduction...This will require radical shifts in approaches. The US and EC agricultural policies are anti-environment and anti-market using heavy subsidies and fertilizers. NGOs should lobby to get new funds for CAGAR to conduct the research necessary for the change as they did with the Green Revolution...FAO should lead...If there is full-cost accounting, then the market will work well. Public/private consortiums might also create new communities that show new practices like China has done.

1.12 Encourage new definitions of wealth that could change consumption patterns.

This is the key action. The economic myth of growth at any cost has to be destroyed and a new image of wealth created and sold by the Ad Council, advertising industry, and media stars is essential to achieve this opportunity...Yes, but not just wealth, we need new vision of world harmony...Even if we change the definition of wealth, there is no guarantee people will change their beliefs and behaviors. How to move from concept to behavior change?... Difficult as long as people enjoy their cars...The consumption model in some developing countries (including China), must be changed. We should not freely copy the model of developed countries...Consumption patterns are extensively covered in Agenda 21, though not directly in relation to definitions of wealth. This requires a fundamental reform of the world's present monetary system.

The goals of sustainability are at odds with a global economy that relies on interchangeable currencies, used not only to facilitate the exchange of goods and services but also as stores of wealth. The "monetary imperative" dictates that the best strategy to achieve financial security is the liquidation of assets when their net present value exceeds their discounted future value. We need a transition to currencies whose issuance is based on the actual provision of goods and services and a strict separation of exchange (trade) functions from capital (savings) functions. Locally controlled currencies will isolate local economies from the socially and environmentally destructive vagaries of global economic swings… See Thomas H. Greco, Jr., and New Money for Healthy Communities, <http://www.ic.org/market/money/index.html> and Bernhard Lietaer, Community Currencies: A New Tool for the 21st Century http://www.transaction.net/money/cc/cc01.html.

Ithaca, N.Y. currency system <www.lightlink.com>, LETS (local exchange trading systems) in 20 countries, the Schumacher Society and H.Henderson, Information, the World's New Currency, Isn't Scarce, World Business Academy Perspectives, wba@well.com, …. Skeptical…. New definitions will not help too much to change consumption patterns…. Changing the definition of wealth is a complex process including religion and opinion makers, not only the "voice of greens", to touch the moral dimension, not only the ecological aspect.

1.13 Encourage ethical discourse to make reasonably clean air, water, and healthy soil a higher value than economic value.

Very interesting new model of valuing the environment... Love idea of declaring it a human right. The UN would have to initiate it, but how to get the world to accept it?... People don't change behavior because of ethics, but because a new behavior works better for survival…. Governments have to educate people to understand the environmental facts and impacts. Let the NGOs address the ethics... Consider corruption in environmental matters as a "special crime" against human dignity…We are now a global people and we need global values. But people don't change because of ethics, they change because of survival.

The religious imperative of life should drive religious leaders to provide more leadership in this. Maybe the Vatican should host a world congress on religion and environment to be broadcast on live television during Earth Day…. Maybe 5-7% of the world understands these issues and actions. Such a global religious event would broaden the world understanding beyond this small percent... Because of the differences of interests of different groups, it might be a very difficult discourse…. Women can play a very important role in this discourse... World society is in transition to a new system of values and new ethical norms, but clean air, water and soil for the human health should be the first priority. All other priorities should serve the realization of this one....

1.14 Incorporate the concept of sustainability into educational curricula at all levels; include ecology, biodiversity, preservation of resources, and use informal education materials by NGOs that are increasingly available on Internet.

Create a tight focus on the message and include public social marketing as well... UNESCO and UNU should provide some leadership... Old ideas should be changed and the new ones communicated in the primary schools including sustainable development technology and technological innovation…. It is not possible to incorporate the concept of sustainability in the actual educational system. It is necessary to create basically new educational system structure

1.15 Encourage consumers to purchase from service industries that draw from more environmentally friendly industrial processes.

Agree, connected with ecolabelling…. Consumer unions could share best practices, but who gets to create the seal of approval system?... Leadership should come from Consumer groups and government environmental agencies.... Theoretically it is a good action, but it depends on resources and production tradition, as well as domestic market demand. If very expensive ecologically clean goods are suggested, than only a very restricted part of population will be able to buy it and the corporation will collapse immediately. Will corporations take this risk?…. Privileges of consumers must be institutionalized.

1.16 Encourage synergy between environmental movements and human rights groups to make clean air, water, and land a human right and increase free flow of information about environmental impacts.

Who brings the movements together?...NGOs should lead...Yes, but leadership to do this should come from religious groups who can use the year 2000 as the focal point for the synergy…. Not only human rights, but all types of organisations oriented on communication with people, such as religious and educational organisations…. It is very important, but it is also very difficult, at least for China. Presently, the only solution is the government action.

1.17 Support and promote all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives, promoting programs to improve health care, diminish infant mortality, improve literacy, and involve women in the monetary economy.

In Asia the governments lead this action, but in Africa UN agencies, USAID, and other outside agencies lead because the governments resist birth control... The family is the first institution to protect the environment…. UNFPA should provide leadership... Since much is going on now, it is a lower priority than the others listed here.

1.18 Develop national laws to compensate victims of pollution and other environmental damage

Very important and should be initiated by government environmental agencies... National laws should be inspired by the principle of global solidarity and responsibility for wrong local actions…. If full-cost accounting were instituted, than inventors and corporate behaviors will change…. Punitive systems produce behavior changes but balance with incentives. Is there a leader in the international systems that can create a world fund to communicate to the customers and provide incentives? If sustainability was a brand, what would it look like? UN organizations and corporations should collaborate to show a world with sustainability and one without it…. It is difficult or even not possible to evaluate and count specific environmental damages (for example health of people is complex of many factors where quality of environment is just one of them).

1.19 Conduct UN Summit on sustainable development to update progress and establish international laws for sustainable development.

Necessary to get attention…. We have universal declarations and local ignorance. Instead we should have a UN Summit to establish "global laws for sustainable development" that should be implemented by local institutions that are globally oriented and supported by global institutions responsible for environmental protection…. It can not be fully mandated and covered by laws. What gets us eventually to sustainability is trade. I think that we can get there in 25 years everywhere except Sub Sahara Africa, and even there I think that another 10 years is all that will be required. For Africa, the time is needed to skip a generation of government officials.

The bases for this process are the three agreements from Rio (climate, diversity and desertification). Now it is necessary to develop further Rio Declaration. International Law will gradually absorb principles of sustainability…. It is very difficult to conduct because of the great differences in the development level of different regions…. Wishful thinking…. Some international summits are necessary and may be useful, but the problem is of equivalency and access to information - Internet is very important.

1.20 Create institutions for increased global environment protection; example: The International Court of Environmental Arbitration and Conciliation.

Evolve to a Global Court of Environment with real but limited powers…. Environment should not be "isolated" but should be seen in broader context. The UN Trusteeship Council could be transformed to the Sustainable Development Council…. No need to create new institutions if UNEP would do its work and push the World Court in the Hague to address such cases…. Probably yes, the problem is that the international institutions, when established, live their own life…. Would be nice but national states are not willing to take responsibility and to be controlled by international organizations.

1.21 Develop model sustainable communities, in different settings around the world that are designed around reduced consumerism, sustainability, community values, traffic-free, sylvan spaces, with fewer than 2,000 people initiated by private land developers with support from, and in consultation with, local government, state government, community development NGOs, other relevant environmental, urban farming, appropriate energy NGOs.

Yes, it is important to make the connection between sustainability and new holistic models of the society…. One of the best proposed actions, "exempla trahunt"…. OK, but lower priority... Use them to create lists of information about what works…. It exists. Local Agenda 21 - in England for example 40 percent of communities have it…. It is not real. These communities are based on different economic models. There is deep need to have private property, private ownership in our mind.

1.22 Provide natural habitat corridors and integration of habitat in agriculture to protect biodiversity initiated by local government regulations, and support programs, farmers and agribusiness, in consultation with environmental NGOs.

Yes, but include academia in the process... This is too specific, better to educate farmers about what works and create incentives to let the market solve it rather than governments.… OK, but lower priority…. It exists (at least in Europe).

1.23 Set goals or limits for percent of land-use for natural pristine reserves, low intensity agriculture, and high intensity agriculture.

Good idea, should be led by government ministries of agriculture and natural resources...We don't know enough to do this yet. Instead, give incentives for good behavior... Interesting idea... Create the universal principles but customize locally, since the population to land area varies.

1.24 Pursue policies to minimize the need for travel, such as local production and telecommuting, initiated by local governments, planning authorities, industry associations, telecommunications companies, community development NGOs.

It is an important point. Government should take leadership…. Yes, but lower priority... It should be initiated by private sector, not governments.

1.25 Consider sustainable development goals in all other national and international public policies and relations.

Very important and UNEP should coordinate with government environmental agencies…. It is necessary to try and try again…. Very important, but too general

1.26 With broad public support, encourage governments to enter into voluntary agreements with industry, under which industry is willing to commit itself to go "beyond regulation" in exchange for a relaxation of administrative and compliance costs of regulations (data collecting, reporting, verification).

UNEP should encourage this…. It is more accepted in developed countries (like EU countries); the developing ones are preparing for it…. Today unrealistic, maybe contraproductive.

Additional actions:

Define the concept of an environmental criminal... Nations acting irresponsibly should be penalized, regulatory and legislative measures are part of the answer, but we should not isolate 'offenders' totally - this only drives them to unsustainable activity. Demonstrate the net benefit of viable alternatives. Share information on the right ways of conducting our activities. It will not be possible in the short term to unhook economic value from environmental values...nor should we try...in the long term unsustainable activities are uneconomic. Community education programs have shown that societal attitudes can change quickly (e.g. seat belts, litter). Disseminate information on consequences. The onus is on those in positions of power to create the opportunities in which people can make appropriate choices…. Add or set up new World Environment Organization and make WTO use full cost pricing and HDI indicators instead of GDP.

Establish an Environmental Security Council as a parallel organization to the UN Security Council that focuses human conflict…. Establish a unified organization for coordinating the relations among UN organizations and countries that is multi-disciplinary and multi-sectoral. Such coordination has worked locally very well in Shan-jing-hu region, Jiangxi Province.

Developed countries should provide financial aid for nature conservation in poorer regions...Promote "ecological foot printing", (see Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, 1996) as an alternative to determining human carrying capacity... The IMF should use the Asian financial crisis and forest fires to: 1) give greater weight to sustainable development in their loan criteria; 2) insist on international accounting standards for foreign direct investment; and 3) explore the feasibility of leveraging fees on currency speculation…. The United States should provide leadership in the global consideration of the many trade-offs in the use of "environmental space" and development…. Planners and engineers should be required to provide suburban developments of say 2-5,000 people…. Use the media and education to reduce political manipulation…. It may require guerilla tactics from environmental NGOs to get effective action to achieve this opportunity…. Create "residents compacts" as joint agreements on key development issues. Interface Futurists and Planners…. Instead of showing only media images of "structured permanent employment" show "unstructured part-time employment" as an alternative to unemployment…. Define some alternative macroeconomic indicators to GNP…. Establish face-to-face networking and Internet banks to lend to ethical/sustainable projects as competition with existing banks…. Control intermigration.

The "global view" should include the right of nations to develop and share responsibility for the state of the world…. The UN or World Bank should establish a foundation to support the implementation of the strategies for sustainable development in developing countries. We need an international assessment, raising, and distribution of financial resources…. For better understanding, it should be created a one word international term for sustainable development. In some languages it is difficult to express it…. Sustainable development will be enhanced if relief and development were more integrated. Usually, UNHCR is the first organization to enter a post-conflict situation. There is little connection between relief programs and the development programs that follow. This could be changed if the World Bank, UNDP and others created a joint approach with UNHCR during assessments and missions.

The public has little understanding of sustainable development. How to reach the masses? There is a need to create edutainment and games to teach the public the issues and responsible behavior.

General comments:

Implementation of Agenda 21 is lagging far behind what was anticipated in Rio in 1992. But that does not mean that Agenda 21 is dead, that its goals are invalid, or that all its proposed steps to sustainability are wrong. The great coincidence of Millennium Project's present list of suggested actions with Agenda 21 proves the contrary. The Millennium Project should consider revisiting Agenda 21 in greater depth as the focus of a future special project...Our problem is that the current market economy system is very imperfect but we do not have a better system. We need a new philosophy or development, which would help to find an alternative economic system.

Ways of realisation of sustainable development: from the top: create the system of laws, directions, and financing. From the bottom: change the view of the world, change of patterns, change of style of life

Opportunity 6 - Reducing the rate of population growth.

Although human population is growing in dangerous proportions, the rate of growth is falling worldwide. Between 1954 and 1974 population grew at 1.9%, then dropped to 1.73 percent between 1974-1994, and is expected to fall further to 1.35% between 1994 to 2014. The fertility rate fell from 4.9 in 1970 to 3.1 in 1992 and by 1998 it had fallen to 2.9. These diminishing growth rates are associated with increased income, improved literacy, diminished infant mortality (dropped 50% in the last 50 years), empowerment of women, improved and inexpensive contraceptives with better distribution, and effective family planning programs. This knowledge can be used to create more effective programs that focus on those areas of the world where the rate remains high and where people can least afford to provide the necessities of life for a rapidly expanding population. The conventional view of reproduction will change with the increasing progress toward self-determination and economic autonomy of women (from victims to builders of alternative societies), future development and widespread availability of a chemical that permits the selection of a male or female child before conception, and the potential of essentially full control of genetics and biochemical processes of all living organisms.


Too soon to declare victory.... Although population growth rate is falling, we cannot relax population control efforts because some 3 billion women will reach childbearing age (14-49) in the next generation, while only 1.8 billion will reach menopause over the same time span. Per capita consumption also is on the increase...The diminished mortality in middle and old age groups in developing countries will not only accelerate population growth, it will change the labor force/old age ratio and increase dependency. We are not prepared for it - the systems to take care of the elderly are inadequate. This is not only true in the Third World, Japan is also not prepared...The elderly will continue to work as their health improves and volunteer, and this will displace some of the labor force... AIDS is also likely to be a bigger problem than people yet realize, particularly in China. They announce officially that there are 5,000 cases in the country, but it's more likely to be 2 million, centered along the southern border... There are no easy solutions to the moral controversies over issues like selecting the sex of a child or cloning. All these 12 suggested actions are important and feasible.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

6.1 Perform R&D and introduce new long-term male and female contraceptives.

Implement the research on population and policy that has already been done and make current birth control methods safer…. The contraceptives should be 100% foolproof. Even a low probability failure affects the credibility of the system.

6.2 Increase the level of social marketing programs that teach family planning.

Focus on men as well as women and the community as-a-whole…. Village leaders should be involved.

6.3 Establish coordinated global efforts and financial incentives directed toward increased contraceptive use (e.g. providing tax advantages to smaller families).

Also focus on increasing agricultural efficiencies so that larger families are not as needed to help on the farm.... Avoid punitive measures. This was well documented in Chapter 7 from the UN conference in Cairo on population. People will simply pay the fines to have children. Instead, address social development needs.

In developing countries only a small percentage are taxpayers. Incentives like food, cash are there but still the program needs to be properly targeted by the family planning officers…. Not effective for poor people, who are not taxpayers, education is more important.

6.4 Grant greater access by women to credit and other economic and social resources; e.g. carry micro-entrepreneurship forward: extending small loans for self-employment to poor people to accelerate development of small-scale business.

This is increasingly being understood and implemented, even by the World Bank…. Accessibility has increased considerably, now focus on awareness of the programs and marketing skills.

6.5 Promote the self-determination and economic autonomy of women, (but taking care to operate within the permissible local socio-cultural and religio-moral norms and limits).

Focus on rural populations with radio and television shows that feature women who have become successful.... Special-training programs should be developed.... This is linked to 6.4. Government and NGOs should lead educational efforts, but government should help provide the minimum threshold of support. More effective and more important than pure business activities would be to strength women awareness and confidence in being independent and taking initiative…. NGOs should take the lead…. As women become more involved in the cash economy, birth rates decrease in big cities of poor countries…. Addresses the symptoms not the cause.

6.6 Actively seek religious dialogues on the changing roles of women and birth control.

Interfaith coalitions should lead and should not focus just on women, but on men, the family, and the community…. Use folk arts in the rural areas…. Religious leaders, government, and NGOs should collaborate.

6.7 Encourage widespread access by women to education, communication, and lifestyle awareness.

Oriented not just towards women, but to the family and access to technology that reduces the needs for large families.... Getting girls through elementary school is the strategy that positively affects all the other approaches. Elementary education should be a stand-alone goal.... Include vocational training for women.

6.8 Encourage health policies that diminish infant mortality.

Ensure the life of the first child and abolish the myth about the male child (especially in India). Support government primary health centers for mothers and children. NGOs should lead public education about ethics…. Include and stress, the construction and equipping of maternity and pediatric hospitals and clinics and training of nurses…. Why is infant mortality still high in some countries? Government population policy is less important than achieving a stable political system with a growing economy.

6.9 Encourage land and other inheritance rights for women.

Laws are there, but not implementation…. Legal literacy is needed…. It is important to stress women's economic rights.... Pressure for change can come from UN conferences like the recent ones in Cairo and Beijing. Bilateral diplomatic pressure and foreign assistance programs that help rewrite laws can help reinforce this.

6.10 Support the worldwide women's movement aimed at freedom, equality of opportunity, and social justice for women.

Hillary Clinton has stressed that human rights are women's rights and women's rights are human rights. Rights are for all people. Governments can support but not lead such movements. These movements may have to be country-by-country keeping a local focus that can be reinforced by global influences like the Internet and UN conferences.

Create a media strategy…. Women study centers should evolve programs.

6.11 Encourage and initiate policies that protect the family with adequate benefits so that all can work.

Implement as a government partnership with community churches and social groups and develop legislation in the process.

6.12 Support equal pay for men and women who do equal work.

Law exists, but women's groups should provide leadership for the informal sector. Define the quality of work/ Hours of working…. Currently included in diplomatic human rights discussions.

Additional actions:

Currently women bear the burden of reproductive responsibility. This should be changed…. Males should equally share responsibility of population control. Change men's attitudes toward male contraceptives.

Instead of giving money to governments, which can lead to bribery and corruption, encourage corporations to work directly with people to solve social problems and create sustainable development.... Include adolescence - new cohort coming into childbearing age in description.... Define what do we mean by reproductive rights and how to implement them.... Legalization of abortion should be kept separate from the human rights issues.... Improve water supply and access to reduce infant mortality, which in term further reduces birth rates.

Advocating healthy and safe sexuality involves management improvement, change of traditional thinking and promotion of medical techniques…. UN and governments should have greater responsibility for these actions.

Create ways to increase gender sensitivity among men that lead to more women being involved in decision making.

Opportunity 7 - Emerging strategies for world peace and security.

Global visibility provided by news media and other worldwide communication sources reduces xenophobia and undue nationalism. The end of the Cold War, and the consequent nuclear weapons disarmament program, improvement in North-South relations, the reconciliation movement in South Africa, development of the EU and other regional arrangements, global satellite surveillance and media, and improving living standards for the majority are increasing the acceptance of an emerging peace paradigm - that is more than simply the absence of war, but is the state of secure conditions for the evolution of humanity. The public world, including the developing world is living longer, is more literate, eats more calories, and has falling infant mortality rates. One billion children are enrolled in K-12 classrooms, up from 250 million in 1960; 2.7 billion adults are literate compared to 1 billion in 1960.

Changes in global frames of reference and philosophies (due in part to understanding of the interaction of population and economic growth with environmental degradation) give rise to the possibility of a new age of enlightenment. Many norms underpinning peace are widely accepted, such as territorial integrity; non-use of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons; the immunity of civilian aircraft and ships; international obligation to help refugees; the inadmissibility of colonial rule; the unacceptability of officially sanctioned racial discrimination; the undeniable equality of woman; and human rights.


There are a number of emerging trends that will permit us to build structures of peace. I agree with the optimistic thrust of the paragraph. However, increasing global communication and transparencies can stir up ethnic hatred as well as positive understanding. For example, there is a huge political Islamicist threat, but the media oversimplifies the reality of this issue. There is insufficient information on Islam and the international media has to be more responsible. We accept too easily the "world court of opinion". Even though there is increased calorie consumption, there are also serious threats of a massive lack of food resources. There has been more progress and environmental negotiators since the first Earth day 27 years ago to the Kyoto conference on climate change than any arms control and disarmament treaties…. Peace and security is linked with the global convergence of information and communications (Opportunity 9) and promising new space projects (Opportunity 14).

Once the space programs speed up, information technology will become more pervasive and enhance the prospects for peace…. Trust between leaders in opposing camps can be demonstrated via the media. Increasing living standards means people have more to lose. Increasing openness in democracy is also a force for peace…. Globalization of business and finance is the key force for peace. Unfortunately it is also responsible for sweatshops. Labor unions ought to globalize to address this. The resistance in the US to making the UN a more effective peace keeping operation dismays me. The U.S. does not want to pay its bills and participate in peace keeping. Mass culture is inimical to leadership. With all of our TV, movies, silly publications, there is no appetite today for real leaders…. Compare the percentage of people living in poverty with absolute levels to get the full picture. The middle class in India in nearly as large as the entire population of the United States, but India has 1 billion people, hence, the poor is still the majority in India. Since the norms underpinning peace are accepted, the price for their violation has increased.... The economic gaps can lead to social conflicts that will take a long time to recover.... Conflict resolution and ethnic conflicts are not mentioned in the description.

There were 35 civil wars during 1997. The international community is losing interest in helping solve these conflicts. Countries are closing their doors to refugees. There is an international convention for refugees, but no rules for internally displaced people…. The evolution of nationalism is not receiving proper attention and study. Increasing national identity helps development, but it can evolve into a nationalism that becomes fascism. We need some independent system of scanning nationalistic movements.... Any nationalistic movement has a negative impact on the society. Even if it does not reach the goal, it creates economical and social instability and tension....

I think the problems presented are not accurate. At present, the world peace is controlled by some big countries and groups, which can exert great influence on world economy and security. Military aggression is replaced by economic aggression. So I think, apart from the political and military equality in different countries, the equality should also exist in economic and environmental resources…. During the Cold War, a mutual restricted relationship was formed between the two camps. So far, the Cold War seemed to be over, but new pattern of the world is not established yet…. The heavy diet of war-based science fiction cartoons digested by children is worrying.

Suggested actions to achieve this opportunity:

7.1 Strengthen UN Secretariat early warning and monitoring system with indicators of peace and security that are transparent for cross-referencing by media, governments, NGOs, and the public, to increase the likelihood of connecting early warning with appropriate and timely action.

Integrating the media into the system might help to speed things up.... Very good idea to make the system transparent for media cross-referencing. Since early warning does not always get timely decisions and governments can manipulate information, the media (BBC, CNN, etc.) is required to put the pressure of world opinion on political leaders to act…. U-2 flights over Iraq were the first use of national intelligence assets by the United Nations Security Council. The Security Council knew all the early warning indicators in Rwanda, but there was still no action.

The early warning systems already exist - they are NGOs. The issue is how to get the political will to act on the early warnings. Automatically putting items on the Security Council agenda from an early warning system won't work if the political will is not there to make a decision. There were 3500 UN troops in Rwanda prior to the slaughter, but their mission was not changed by the Security Council to act. If Belgrade had been bombed three years before the Dayton Accords, it would have stopped the war, but there was no political will to act. Over the long-term, better education of leaders is the answer.

The UN is controlled by some big countries, so its role is exaggerated and some decisions made in the UN are suspect.

7.2 Identify troops to provide a rapid response capability for peace keeping and building who have been trained together, with compatible equipment and communications, instead of a UN standing military.

This is much better than having a UN standing army.... This is desperately needed. Without peacekeeping forces, UNHCR cannot do its job. A 48-hours deployment is necessary as the training requirement…. Improve the UN's military communications equipment. 7.3 answers the first part of 7.2…. Actions 2 and 3 are meaningless until all member countries participate…. There are 48 countries that have agreed to designate troops under article 43 of the UN Charter, but the Security Council has not acted on it.

If we promoted a freestanding UN force [editor's note: this is not the same as action 7.2], resistance in the US to peacekeeping with its own troops might be diminished. This UN force would be sort of like the old French Foreign Legion, all volunteers. If there were a quick reaction force under the UN flag there would be less chance of genocide. It would be used also to restore civil order.

7.3 Encourage NATO-style pooling of military forces to cut down on defense expenditures and foster greater security interdependence among nations, promoting a sense of supra-national, if not global, identity.

This is fine and not a UN matter. Common memberships like the Nordic States is appropriate.... NATO seems to answer the question of how the UN mobilizes troops, improves communications, and creates successful coalition forces.

This should foster interdependence and trust among nations by providing standards of interoperability, doctrines and interfaces. There may be a (commercial supplier?) role for pooling of specialized resources (such as heavy airlift capacity).... NGOs must push UN and other providers of troops for monitoring and collective responsibility for the behavior of troops. Since UN and some nations do not punish their troops for abuses, then an international system will have to be identified to be responsible.

This may be a goal to achieve in 50 years.

7.4 Develop better techniques for non-violent conflict resolution, through, for example, studying successful interventions and reaching a better understanding of the dynamics of communications across cultural and language barriers.

Billions are spent on troops and next to nothing on the emotional healing that is necessary to pull out the troops…. The political department of the UN Secretariat should do much more about this. Problem is there are few similar situations. You should have a plan before going in, but be ready to throw it out once engaged in the situation…. If the UN and other international arrangements are not changed to address the current realities, then NGOs will begin to fill the void…. NGOs have to convince governments that they are not a threat and have governments invite them in for the social elements of peace building. Political elements can be led by organizations like OSCE for Bosnia. Economic building by the World Bank, IMF, and bilateral donors. But social building addresses the heart and needs for healing.

This is better left to the NGOs to train the trainers who are the lights at the end of the tunnel…. Consider an interdependent two-team approach: Team l composed of people who aspire towards Ghandi-like consciousness and skilled in negotiations and non violent conflict approaches, and Team 2 composed of military or police enforcement personnel. Team 1 should also be related to action item 7.6…. World Bank's Peace and Development work needs to be linked more closely to the bank's policy process.... How do you pay for the interventions? See Carnegie study on "Preventing Deadly Conflict". Learn from the rapid and successful health intervention examples by CDC and WHO.... Conflict resolution approaches consider micro-level, cultural, religions and ethical roots.... Conflicts may differ, but it is possible to develop some common principles to find solutions.

Every nation should have a legislative base and mechanisms to solve this kind of conflicts.... Experts on human rights tend to see conflict resolution as short-term thinking, arguing that until human rights are addressed, conflict will continue.... The US is wrong with its Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). High-technology dominance is not viable. The non-violent processes are still maturing; the UK is ahead in developing them. These processes bring together many approaches including public awareness as an overall package of diplomacy.

Actions 4 and 5 are very important, particularly to some poor countries.

7.5 Increase support of software development for a compact multi-language translator; increasing mutual understanding among citizens around the world.

An exciting technical development.... The US National Security Agency has software that can do this now. Could they make this available to the public?.... This could be dangerous, because mistranslated subtleties can make the situation worse…. English is becoming a world language. The assumption that a lack of common language is the route of conflicts may be false. Although English countries may decline, but English will not…. Spread English as a second language of commerce and computers

7.6 Establish an NGO network to monitor indicators of conflict and discuss and link strategies for rapid deployment of non-military resources.

NGO's representatives are perceived as more peaceful than Government's officials and as having more freedom to make judgements, but they should be in close communications with Government institutions... NGO's representatives should have a special training and special tools for forecasting the conflict evolution.... The NGOs networks should be organized by regions for exploration and conflict scanning.... I prefer this to 7.1.... Also make early warning alerts from such networks automatically added to the Security Council's agenda.... Consult NGOs like the International Crisis Group of London that has 20 monitors of the Dayton Accord in Bosnia.

Government's interference in conflict resolution, especially at the first stage, could have a negative impact and make the problem more complicated. NGOs interference does not result in the same negative reactions…. Link local NGOS, international NGOs, and international organizations…. The role of the NGO is suspicious.

7.7 Insist that religious leaders intervene in conflicts with religious tensions saying that war is against the religion.

More have fought in the name of religion, than have stopped wars in the name of religion.... Some religions believe war is justifiable. Put pressure behind Islamic and Christian leaders who might move more effectively than the World Council of Churches. Give more media attention to leaders in peace making.... Agree, but ethnic rather than religious leaders need to publicly demonstrate trust in each other.... Religious leaders tend to deal only with their religions. We also need inter-religious dialogs among the top leaders…. How can you make sure they don't take sides?…. Religious plays a role in only certain regions.

7.8 Increase funding for social marketing or public education programs to promote tolerance and respect for diversity and equal rights.

Too many of these programs aim at people who are 17 or 18 years old. That is too late. These courses should be aimed at people in elementary and middle school…. Effort should be worldwide, not just current areas of conflict…. Establish a global information and communications for the UN to provide a clearinghouse for the world to talk together. The Millennium Project could be an arm of that. The UNU should become more active with a real Cyberspace University.

7.9 Create and implement educational programs at all levels that teach peace-related topics such as peaceful resolution of conflicts, compromise and consensus.

Yes, but keep a sense of perspective, competition is good to teach, but not conflict.... The President of the World Bank has pledged $2.5 billion to insure that every child completes six years of education by the year 2010…. Democratic processes are requiring indigenous leadership such as Welesa and Mandela. They interpret the needs of the society better than those from the outside do. Communications in this process is important but are means of communication only in the hands of one part of the world?

7.10 Tighten laws, regulations and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological and chemical stocks.

When nuclear weapons were being developed, we did not know the consequences of radiation; today we do not know the consequences of biological stocks. Many products today are based on biological processes. The mass of biological stocks is increasing, which could provoke mutations. These problems will get worse.... We need a very tight regime for transferring, utilization, storing, and supervision of all these stocks. Since it is expensive, many countries will not do this properly, leading to unexpected and irremediable consequences.... A legislative base and an international convention with a minimum code of international standards should be developed and adopted…. Take punitive actions against those who do not respect the conventions.

Control, at an international level, should be provided by a UN organization.... Presumes world law. Tighten security with information and cyberspace.

I disagree, the laws and regulations are already tight.

7.11 Establish international criminal courts and tribunals with enforcement powers to punish those convicted of atrocious collective and communal violence.

This will help develop and focus world opinion about violence. Connect this International Criminal Court with an early warning system focusing on potential communal violence (see 7.12 below) and we will have an international system of analyzing and regulating violence. Extraordinarily important to do, but making sure all rights are taken into account makes the process more expensive than people think.... So important that it should be included in the paragraph description above. Russia, China and US are slow to accept this.... Agree, but in the meantime apply sanctions now…. There is no minimum code for common international legislative base. Only an international Criminal Court can develop an independent international criminal code. It is possible to form a procedure of election of judges as well as to develop common judicial procedures.... Yes and include the UN department of political affairs in its creation…. Develop the World Court in The Hague further…. Consider how to prevent its causing disagreement among countries.

7.12 Establish international early warning systems focusing on potential and emerging crime threats.

Yes, but next you have to answer who should act on the information.... It is an easier problem than a problem of early warning about conflicts as a whole.

The UN might run countries in Africa and other weak nations through the trusteeship council. That mechanism could be used to salvage failing countries…. Sure, failed states lead to organized crime…. Most conflicts today are within nations. The UN can also address this with the international criminal courts. What are the rights of all nations? What about the global commons. Do we just let people kill Rwandans, the US pollute the earth, and Brazil cut down its rainforest?…. The role of international organization should be intensified.

7.13 Address new crime areas such as illegal waste disposal, theft of nuclear materials, human organs and arms traffic, and sabotage of information networks.

Apply sanctions now. Utilize the Internet and media to create a systematic alert system that lets individuals call in early warnings. Corruption worldwide is pervasive and imploding…. If one can afford it, why shouldn't one be able to buy the best medical treatment?

7.14 Deepen the development of the EU through a process of federalization of public policies (not only within pillar 1 but also within pillars 2 and 3).

Most said: Sure, without comment, but one said this was not relevant.

7.15 Enlarge NATO in parallel with enlargement of EU.

Disagree, NATO is already moving ahead of EU on this respect.... How is that part of the emerging peace strategy?

7.16 Encourage pluralism through the promotion of multi-polarity, detente, entente, and an intercultural religious dialog.

Yes.... A powerful opportunity, but it will happen anyway.

7.17 Improve public visibility of issues through establishment of global public access TV networks.

WETV is now in 30 countries, funded by seven aid agencies and private investors. <www.wetv.com>

How to pay for it? Maybe a new NGO?.... Add attention to the issue of the information gap by making a new UN agency to address this gap and have Bill Gates fund it…. Couldn't hurt, but would be difficult. Public access TV's programming is relatively stupid. There has to be a good mechanism to promote healthy funding and guidelines. It is the nature of broadcasting to compete with 30+ channels - too many channels - lots of feasibility problems.

If the UN got savvy about the media and communications (which it hasn't yet), a UN Channel on global issues, what the UN is doing, what the UN is accomplishing, etc., would be very effective…. The way to structure a good public access TV network would be to structure it like PBS in the US or have a UN Channel…. Very important to get those who are usually closed off from conventional television.

7.18 Promote peace research and studies of conflict resolution and consensus building.

The US has one Ph.D. and seven MA programs in conflict resolution as distinct from peace studies. The Canadians, Dutch, and Norwegians are also leading in this. The World Bank has a new unit in preventative diplomacy and post-conflict reconstruction.... NGOs are making progress in this but universities are not contributing compared to their resources and potential…. Agree, but so what?

7.19 Centralization of police work (e. g. Europe) and the development of new police techniques.

International police are important. In the military there are many spare troops, but there are no spare police…. Doesn't sound good. It raises my civil libertarian flag.

7.20 Introduction into military, police and terrorist arsenals of non-lethal weapons including aerosols that induce sleep and sticky foam.

With the right guidelines to prevent abuse, this is a very interesting possibility because non-lethal weapons offer the opportunity to stop a conflict without causing damage to the participants. Many different non-lethal weapons have been developed and produced, but inertia prevents the implementation of these weapons. They are not included in the training programs of military and police forces.

Distribute non-lethal weapons to the military arsenals, because the military's function is also to influence and prevent the mass disarrays and natural disasters. These weapons are very effective in the actions against terrorist when it is necessary to isolate terrorists as soon as possible. They provide the opportunity to localize a conflict in a timely manner. If these weapons would be used against terrorists, than terrorists would know that they would not have time for negotiations. It could influence a decrease in terrorism.... Yes, but one still has to be careful with them; rubber bullets have had their problems.

7.21 Accelerate reduction in arms R&D, production, stockpiling, trade, and military personnel.

Agree, except that nations supporting 7.2 and 7.3 will need to increase some resources and the role of these needs to be broadened to include disaster relief.... "Generals always prepare for the last war." Increase conversion of military weapons to peaceful uses and make new weapons conform to current and potential situations…. This is a top priority; there is still much to be done…. Imbalance should be considered; the developing countries should learn how to protect themselves first.

60% of arms trade is from four members of the UN Security Council.

7.22 Increase the size of the UN Security Council.

There is no way to work out the political problems…. Yes, but we have to change the UN rules so that regional organizations like the EU and Mercosur can be on the Security Council to reflect the current realities…. Although adding regional organizations will resolve some political issues (such as Mercosur working to resolve the problem of the Argentina vs. Brazil seat) would require changing the UN charter - that is based on nation-state members, add regional organizations .... Adding more will not help…. Need much caution and much discussion.

7.23 Accelerate efforts to convert military technology to civilian uses.

Developed countries should undertake relatively more obligations including the reduction of military and nuclear weapons and environmental protection and resources conservation.

Additional actions:

Add international accountability, impunity, and mechanisms for adjudicating disputes and massive abuse of human rights…. Since strategies for eradication of poverty are strategies towards security, make a new international convention to increase humanitarian and financial assistance to undeveloped areas…. A global strategy rather than ad-hoc measures is needed…. Implement a rapid deployment humanitarian peacekeeping capability funded by insurance premiums paid by countries wishing to redeploy military budgets to civilian sector.

E-2 Related Issues:

From the 15 Issues identified by the Millennium Project:

1. World population is growing; food, water, education, housing, medical care must grow apace

2. Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world

3. The gap in living standards between the rich and poor promises to become more extreme and divisive

4. The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune micro-organisms is growing

5. Diminishing capacity to decide (as issues become more global and complex under conditions of increasing uncertainty and risk)

6. Terrorism is increasingly destructive, proliferating, and difficult to prevent

7. Adverse interactions between the growth of population & economic growth with environmental quality & natural resources

8. The status of women is changing

9. Increasing severity of religious, ethnic, and racial conflicts

10. Information technology's promise and perils

11. Organized crime groups becoming sophisticated global enterprises

12. Economic growth brings both promising and threatening consequences

13. Nuclear power plants around the world are aging

14. The HIV epidemic will continue to spread

Work, unemployment, leisure, and underemployment is changing

The following are considered to be related to the Environmental Security:


Issue 2 - Fresh water is becoming scarce in localized areas of the world

Availability of water is seriously affected in most parts of the world by problems such as inadequate waste management, excessive consumption, contamination of water aquifers, lack of proper water-gathering and distributing technology, and excessive farming on marginal lands. Trends in population, urbanization, tourism, and standard of living are also having a major impact. This problem will only continue to grow worse, since water consumption is doubling every 20 years, and 50 percent of the water supply in many main cities has leaked away. According to UNICEF, 1.1 billion people in developing countries lack access to safe drinking water, and 2.9 billion people have no access to adequate sanitation facilities.

People in rural Africa, mainly women and children, spend as many as 40 billion hours each year hauling water. Water-related diseases contribute to nearly four million child deaths each year, which translates to 11,000 children dying each day. Eleven African and nine Middle Eastern nations are currently facing scarcity. Mexico, parts of northern China (including Beijing and the surrounding agricultural lands), parts of India (including New Delhi and thousands of rural villages), and portions of the western US also lack sufficient clean water supplies.

To further complicate the situation, agricultural uses far exceed other uses of water, accounting for as high as 70% of total water usage in some regions. With the demand for food increasing, pressure to use water for agriculture will certainly increase as well. In some regions, previously fertile agricultural land is becoming brackish and useless due to long-term geological trends.

Climate change is also a factor. The possibility, speed, and consequences of global warming are uncertain, but at the very least, changes in rainfall patterns will undermine the effectiveness of existing water control, storage, and distribution facilities, and will widen the areas affected by scarcity. On the other hand, some areas, such as northeast China, have actually benefited from the increased average temperatures by increased crop production.

While methods do exist to purify salt water, these methods are expensive and often impractical. As urbanization, population, and economic growth continue, competition between urban and agricultural uses of water will grow, and this competition can become a source of political instability and conflict. This issue also affect the development of nations, since the problems brought on by lack of water reduce the amount of time available for learning and work, and also negatively affect water-dependent industrial production.


Remote sensing satellites can play a significant role in locating and characterizing needed resources, including water resources.... The Qur'an teaches to use the least amount of water that is necessary and to take all possible measures to prevent waste…. In many countries, including China, water is even more scarce than land.

Actions to Address Issue 2, with a Range of Views on These Actions

2.1. Governments should establish water conservation policies and incentives to improve the efficiency of water use.

This should include legislative and statutory prices, incentives, and public awareness campaigns.... Once subsidized water, especially for agriculture, is eliminated, the problem will disappear.... This should be done gradually.... Agriculture offers many opportunities for water conservation.... Water for irrigation should be transported to the plot, not run through the entire field.... Both governments and business should implement strict water recycling policies for industry.... Governments should organize scientists or work cooperatively to improve measures to reduce water consumption and improve efficiency of use (such as drip and spray irrigation rather than channel irrigation), as well as create new water resources.... The UNDP, World Bank, UN Children's Fund (UNICEF), and other international organizations are implementing water and sanitation programs and need more financial support.... The Millennium Project might organize an international meeting on water consumption, establish an information network of experts, and promote visions and programs by regions.... UN University has just established the International Network on Water, Environment, and Health (UNU/INWEH).

2.2. Corporations with support from government should begin immediate research and development programs to reduce the means for producing inexpensive water from salt water.

This is necessary and unavoidable in some countries.... Start with brackish water, which has less salt than sea water. It can be used especially for irrigation. Unfortunately, the cost/benefit ratio of salt water conversion to drinking water is not attractive yet.... Also consider the economics of water transportation.... Add "artificial precipitation" or "rain making." The meteorological departments in China have successfully performed this, resulting in significant social and economic benefits. More attention should be paid to meteorological engineering.... Users' associations and water distribution companies should also provide leadership.... This is not useful for all countries.

2.3. The private sector, with some support from governments, should encourage further development of plant strains and agricultural practices that 1) use salt or brackish water for irrigation and/or 2) that are drought-hearty.

Brackish water represents 50% of some countries' water resources.... UNDP, UNEP, IFAD, and others are currently negotiating responsibilities for implementing development plans arising from the Earth Summit run by the UN Conferences on Environment and Development (UNCED), especially the dry lands and desertification sections.... UNESCO did a study that was encouraging and could be generalized.... Also develop plants and crops that can live with less water or survive some drought conditions.... Need incentives to get this action done.

2.4. Governments, with some leadership from the private sector, should develop water trading and marketing practices that allow users and managers to better allocate scarce supplies and fund conservation.

This will require reliable measurements and advanced monitoring techniques.... Water pipelines would benefit both supplier and consumer regions.... South African Development and Cooperation (SADAC) countries will be the first to work with UNDP and others on the legal transborder solutions to these issues.... It is a very complex issue with many political, social, and human implications. Like air and ozone, it poses complex problems of sovereignty, in addition to economic, legal, political, ethical, and even philosophical problems. Water is not the property of anybody.

2.5. Governments, with some leadership from international organizations, should secure treaties and cooperative agreements on water rights among nations that share water resources before shortages occur.

This should be implemented among countries, not as a world order.... SADAC will be the region to participate in the new UNDP "Water Sharing" program to assess transborder water issues and potentials for agreements. If successful, this will be replicated to other areas with transborder water problems.… Special attention has to be given to the use of fossil water that exists under two or more countries, when one country uses it to the degree that it denies neighboring countries' future use. For

example, Israel's depletion of fossil water, at the expense of its Arab neighbors, is a particularly difficult case.... Owing to political realities, agreements also need to be made among different areas or regions within the same country.

2.6. UN organizations should establish a world water agency to develop and expedite new water technology and water extraction and collection projects.

The World Water Consortium based in France and the Global Water Partners in Stockholm already exist and sometimes they have problems coordinating initiatives, but they are able to conduct this mission. There is no need for another agency.... Maybe after the current UN reform and re-organization is complete, this action could be implemented.... The Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) of the UN can help, but its structure needs to be changed.... This is the most important action and would make other actions more successful.... The establishment of this agency should be put forward at the General Assembly of UN conferences related to this issue. It should include coordination with national legislative bases, research and development, expediting use of new technologies, and popularizing this problem in the media.


Research water-saving irrigation technology, timing, and quotas.... Invest in reforestation.... Reduce flow of fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides.... Learn from the success of the Tennessee Valley Authority on water supply.... Improve management of water basins.... Agriculture should combine drip irrigation with the use of plastic film (closed environment agriculture), where possible, to reduce evaporation and increase efficiency.... Use sea ice in temperate zones, such as was done successfully in The Netherlands…. We need to go back to the recommendations of the water meeting in Dublin.... Reduce water pollution from industry and agriculture.

Issue 4 - The threat of new and re-emerging diseases and immune microorganisms is growing

Great progress has been made in eliminating many infectious diseases, but this progress has lulled many parts of the world into a false sense of security, thus enabling diseases that were once thought vanquished to recur with alarming speed. Drug-resistant tuberculosis in the United States is making a deadly comeback. Diseases such as diptheria, dengue fever, meningococca, meningitis, yellow fever, and cholera have reappeared as public health threats in many countries after years of decline. Recent outbreaks of bubonic plague in India and Ebola in parts of Africa have also brought attention to this problem.

Previously unknown infectious diseases are emerging at an unprecedented rate. In the last 20 years, more than 30 new and highly infectious diseases have been identified, including Ebola, HIV/AIDS, and hepatitis C. For many of these diseases there is no treatment, cure, or vaccine. Furthermore, over the last 20 years many known strains of disease have evolved resistance to antibiotics, due to the widespread use and misuse of those drugs. Fewer new antibiotics are being developed and produced, partly because of high development and licensing costs.

There are many reasons for the appearance of new disease, including the rapid increase in international air travel, and the growth of huge metropolises with high population densities and inadequate water supply and sanitation. The risk of food-borne diseases has been heightened by the globalization of trade, as well as recent changes in the production, handling, and processing of food. Environmental factors can also expose humans to previously unknown diseases. For example, activities such as deforestation and migration into remote habitats carry high risks of exposure to disease.

Chuck Woolery of the National Council for International Health, testifying before the US Congress that "Infectious diseases spreading in US hospitals kill more people each year than all Americans killed in Vietnam…The heaviest concentration of pathogens is found in the developing world…The progress of pathogens to adapt to our arsenal of medicines promises to be the fight of our species…It is a trend that holds the capacity to bring life as we know it to a grinding halt…A handful of microbes can be stopped at the border, but the vast majority cannot."


This issue is a matter of national security.... Travel is easy and diseases respect no borders.... Doctors prescribe too many antibiotics and people don't take all of their prescriptions; both are responsible for the resistance to antibiotics that we're seeing. TB was under control for a long time. It's re-emerging now because poor people are undernourished, live in poor shelters, and live in close proximity.... TB is the single largest killer of AIDS patients.... TB is a major problem, because sometimes it gains resistance to multiple drugs and treatments. This phenomenon occurs in 1.4 percent of new cases, especially in Southeast Asia and the former USSR, and makes the disease practically invincible…. The US let its guard down; surveillance of public heath is not as good as it used to be when the US was monitoring for polio and smallpox.... It is hard to prepare for new pathogens, as a great deal is apt to change…. Life is a race between species and their predators, which will never stop. We will never cure all diseases. In any case, the pharmaceutical industry won't go away. But the doom and gloom merchants are wrong, but even if the sort of disaster they describe does strike, there is nothing we could do about it, so there is no point in planning for it!…. The World Health Assembly may ratify a draft of the International Health Regulations that would help create a 'global alert system' diseases.

Actions to Address Issue 4, with a Range of Views on These Actions

4.1. The world health organization (who), with some assistance from government agencies (such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC]) should strengthen and expand the global network of collaborating laboratories to create an effective global surveillance system for emerging viruses and infections.

In addition to using the latest in satellites and information technology, WHO should also act as a cheerleader for and coordinator of other UN organizations and government efforts. It is too dangerous to repeat the mistakes of the past.... We should ask what it took to get mobilized to wipe out smallpox.... How can we expect UN activity when the US doesn't pay its bill? The US and other civilized countries have to recognize the threat…. WHO is establishing a global network of laboratories that generate standardized, quantitative data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing. Data are used locally for containment of resistance and internationally to develop better drug policies and advocacy for new antibiotic treatment.

4.2. WHO with strong government support, should increase funding and technical assistance for the global program on vaccines to ensure maximum coverage is obtained with existing antigens and that research and development is intensified for other possible vaccines and immunizations (such as for malaria).

The reason pharmaceutical companies are not putting more effort into antibiotics and vaccines is simply concern over liability. Liability is the big impediment…. Bacteria are developing resistances to many vaccines and treatments due to over-use and misuse of antibiotics…. This could have broad implications. If bacteria can evolve permanent resistance to streptomycin or other antibiotics, then reducing antibiotic use in agriculture and medicine may be less effective as a means of combating the rise of bacteria resistance than most scientists assume.

4.3. Governments, with support by UN organizations, should increase funding for safe water supply projects.

A more detailed discussion appears above in Issue 2.2.... Public health experts have to understand what's safe and not seek water supplies that are totally free of pollutants. It's a balance between what causes disease and cost. To eliminate all possible pollutants is very costly…. This is very important, because according to the World Health Report, almost half the global population suffers from diseases related to lack of, or contaminated water. Diarrhea also kills millions of children.

4.4 WHO, with active participation by governments, should create a rapid international medical deployment capacity to respond to outbreaks of infectious disease with epidemic potential.

4.5. Governments, with support from international organizations, should increase the funding and capacity of such agencies as the CDC, United States Agency for International Development (USAID), who, and other international technical agencies, to better collaborate with countries in strengthening national disease surveillance and control systems.

4.6. WHO, with national leadership and management by governments, should focus international attention and funding on those diseases that have been targeted by the world health assembly for eradication or elimination as public health problems (polio, measles, guinea worm, and leprosy).

4.7. Corporations, with some leadership by governments, should initiate intensified research into second-generation antibiotics. Issues of liability that are preventing corporate initiatives have to be addressed.

4.8. Governments, NGOs, and international organizations should cooperate in training, credit, and technical assistance for small and microeconomic development to improve economic development in poorer countries and thus improve the standard of living.


Promote telemedicine initiatives to bring the best medical knowledge to all areas of the world and significantly improve the responsiveness of the medical system to critical areas.... Understand more about the relationship between disease and ecology (both external environment and internal ecology of genes) and between disease and genetics (including the mechanism for rapid adaptation to new strengths and mutation)…. Use a variety of media to establish religious and cultural values to reinforce good health practices to reduce the impact of this issue.... Increase monitoring, and research etiologies and new drugs…. Of more than 11 million deaths among children under 5 in the developing world, about 9 million were attributed to infectious diseases, 25 percent of them preventable through vaccination…. At least 30 new diseases have been scientifically recognized around the world in the last 20 years.

Issue 6 - Terrorism is increasingly destructive, widespread, and difficult to prevent.

According to the US State Department, "During 1997 there were 304 acts of international terrorism, eight more than occurred during 1996 but one of the lowest annual totals recorded since 1971. In 1997, 221 persons died and 693 were wounded in international terrorist attacks, as compared to 314 dead and 2912 wounded in 1996." Despite 1997's relatively low numbers, it is clear that terrorist activity throughout the globe remains strong, and that terrorists have even more effective means of carrying out their agendas. Globalization has increased the effectiveness of terrorist organizations, by providing greater opportunities for cooperation with international crime networks.

Biological and chemical weapons are relatively easy to manufacture, only requiring commonly available raw materials and conventional technology. One of the most widely publicized recent terrorist threats was the attack carried out by the Aum Shinrikyo cult, which left several bags containing sarin gas in a Tokyo metropolitan subway. More than 5000 people were injured. Terrorists could also gain access to deadly germs and infectious diseases. These weapons have particular appeal to terrorists who wish to wipe out large populations, because of their potential to affect great numbers of people. Biological agents can not only be used as weapons of mass destruction, but also as highly specific killers. The potential exists for the development of guided bioweapons that could use genetic information to target people with specific genetic characteristics.

Potential for nuclear-armed terrorists has increased as an issue with recent nuclear tests in India and Pakistan. Chechen groups may have been involved in the theft of 6 kg of enriched uranium, (which was eventually recovered in Istanbul); the Czech government intercepted a shipment of 3.2 kg of enriched uranium from a nuclear smuggling ring; and the German government found 0.21 kg of plutonium in Munich on a Lufthansa plane from Moscow. All of these incidents occurred in the last three years. German authorities also reported 276 nuclear smuggling incidents in 1994.

The possibility of information warfare and acts of cyber-terrorism is increasingly worrisome. Ten years ago a college student froze part of the US military's Advanced Research Project Agencies Network. The incident demonstrates the ominous vulnerability of key information systems. More recently, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam flooded Sri Lankan embassies around the world with email. This incident is being called the first cyberterrorist attack by a known terrorist organization. In an increasingly computer-linked society, the range of potential cyber-terrorist targets is incredibly wide, requiring effective and imaginative counter measures, such as police specifically trained for combating cyber-terrorism.


Terrorism has been a permanent element in history, but after the fall of the Soviet Union, terrorism has become the issue of major concern for humankind.... Terrorism is legitimate when all else fails. How do we distinguish justified from unjustified terrorism?.... We need a mechanism to understand and acknowledge previous wrongs…. Terrorism is a virus that is growing. No global system exists to stop it. Anti-terrorism centers exist, but they are underfunded.

Actions to Address Issue 6, with a Range of Views on These Actions

6.1. Governments, with advice from international organizations, should tighten laws, regulations, and inspections associated with security of nuclear, biological, and chemical stocks.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are the principal vehicles upon which to build.... It will require sanctions against countries and groups that do not cooperate and special networks of cooperation among those countries that are targets of terrorism. Different ideological and political interests would have to be overcome for cooperation among national intelligence agencies.... The ultimate sanction, if a nation were to develop nuclear weapons illegally, would be to bomb their facilities.... Despite the NPT's call for disarmament, many policy-makers within the nuclear powers consider these weapons as a guarantee for peace and stability.... This action should be based on an international strategy including 1) databases of people connected with these materials; 2) standards for management of these materials and common international training of personnel so that each knows what his/her counterparts will be doing in a critical situation; 3) rules of storage, control, and displacement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; and 4) ratification of these three elements by member countries of the UN.... We have to put teeth behind the UN. It is the only worldwide organization that can act here. The nations that owe money to the UN should pay their debt.... Why would terrorists want to use weapons of mass destruction? If terrorists want to gain support or sympathy for their agenda, they shouldn't take a path that would result in killing millions of people. Imagine world reaction if terrorists had managed to kill 5000 people in the poison-gas attack in Japan? In such a case, the law enforcement apparatus in Japan would have been joined by law enforcement everywhere. Therefore, rational terrorists would not be likely candidates to use weapons of mass destruction. But we have irrational terrorists. It has been possible for many years for small groups to build chemical and biological weapons. Fortunately, terrorist attacks using such weapons have not happened. However, the past is not necessarily a predictor of the future.... The first three actions to address this issue deals with consequences, not the fundamental causes of terrorism.

6.2. Governments, in cooperation with international organizations, should destroy existing stockpiles of biological weapons.

Gorbachev agreed to this, but it was not done. The development of biological weapons was stopped, but this could start at any moment again.... Create common international rules of storage and control of biological weapons and have them ratified by UN members. All countries should inform a special organization of the UN about any operations with these weapons. The UN should create mechanisms to influence countries that do not follow the rules. Biological weapons are more frightening than nuclear or chemical weapons: they are exceedingly easy to manufacture, and there is no good reliable way to detect their production.... Destroying stockpiles of biological weapons sounds good, but how do we detect the stockpiles? No proposals are satisfactory. Verification is a good idea. Inspectors can validate plants that have been discovered and closed, but good faith is not enough. Chemical plants are more obvious than biological plants. Monitoring raw material inputs won't work. There is no reliable way to contain this issue.

6.3. Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to protection against terrorist acts, such as airport security.

More effective would be old-fashioned spying - infiltrate organizations at the highest level. Get the information to prevent this threat.... In addition to airports, include subways, railway stations, and seaports.... If we are concerned about big issues, smuggling of nuclear material or biological materials raises concern about destroying many more people than just a plane-load. The choice for delivery of a terrorist nuclear weapon would be a truck, van, or a cargo container. Biological weapons, on the other hand, would be essentially undetectable.... Funding is increasing for this now…. Countries with more resources must cooperate with those with fewer resources.

6.4. Governments, with some leadership by the UN Security Council, should expand coordination and cooperation among nations (especially among those that might not normally cooperate) regarding information, early warning, apprehension, and punishment of terrorists.

This would be the most effective action to address the issue.... How should we react to countries that give asylum to terrorists, under the argument of respect for human rights? Asylum supports terrorist activities. The countries that tend to protect terrorists are not able to control terrorists' activities against other countries.... This policy implies that all terrorism is wrong. Was terrorism against apartheid in South Africa wrong?

6.5. Governments should at least double the amount of funding devoted to detection, capture, and punishment of terrorists, perhaps shifting funds from conventional military to anti-terrorism.

This should be done anyway.... This depends on the country.... Try the "rogue leaders" who harbor terrorists in an international criminal court and televise the proceedings.

6.6. Governments should develop protection strategies for biological attack.

Reactions to this are the same as those listed under the action 2.6.1.

6.7. NGOs, with support from governments, should create social marketing or public education programs that promote respect and tolerance for ethnic and other forms of diversity.

This is very important, but be alert against the so-called "intolerance of the tolerant." Under the appearance of tolerance, they first permit and later promote pornography, drug consumption, and other social illnesses. Freedom, yes - but not licentiousness.

6.8. Governments should plan to build resilience and redundancies into sociotechnical systems to avoid possible catastrophic disruptions (including electronic infrastructures from info-terrorism).

This should be a top priority and should be done anyway.

6.9. NGOs and UN organizations should establish an open forum for discussion of issues that enflame terrorists.

This is the most important action and needs to be developed further. Historic injustices of the parties should be fully shared in public and discussed to reach acknowledgment and public apologies. Without this, the hate continues from one generation to the next.... The UN Security Council in April 1996 debated a proposal by over 30 international NGOs for an online network of such conflict-resolution groups worldwide: Anticipatory Risk-Mitigation Peace-Building Contingents (ARM-PC). The UN General Assembly in May 1996 requested that the Security Council set up a similar system for a "humanitarian rapid response" force. Norway announced US$1 million of funding support for this in October 1996.


Eliminate all nuclear weapons. Increasing numbers of leaders think it is desirable and possible for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons (as recommended by the Canberra Commission) in the long run, if the will is there. If the US, United Kingdom, France, and Russia would agree, then China would agree. Sufficient conventional force would remain to address rogue states.... How to get the rightness of an oppressed people's position through to the dominant power? How to categorize acts of terrorism? If the international community will not boycott or intervene in situations of clear injustice, then violence seems to be the only remaining strategy.... The criminal court needs international agreement and authority to act.... Consider media and education programs to demonstrate alternatives to violence to solve problems. The international community must come to an agreement about how to address "state terrorism."…. UN organizations should become increasingly involved in this issue by setting international standards of behavior, and establishing the legislative base to manage terrorism.... It would be helpful if the Millennium Project initiated a conference for the discussion of this problem to bring together the strategies and then submit them to all countries and the UN to start a dialogue.

Issue 7 - There are adverse interactions between the growth of population and economies with environmental quality and natural resources

The current world population is currently about 5.9 billion, and according to UN projections, may reach 10 billion by 2050. Although the population growth rate is slowing, the numbers of people being added to the world every year are higher than ever before. According to the UNFPA, about 45 percent of mankind now lives in cities, and as urban population increases, urban environmental problems will intensify as well.

In addition, faster economic growth is expected in most countries, which will lead to increased consumption of natural resources and energy. Most of the world's fisheries are already in danger of depletion. Many countries have demonstrated that energy consumption need not grow in direct proportion to economic growth, and UNCED has concluded that economic growth is necessary for reversing environmental damage and finding resource substitution. Nonetheless, huge growth is expected as the economies and populations of developing countries expand, and world energy demand is expected to increase 50 percent by 2020. Increased energy consumption could also lead to greater environmental damage. For example, burning of indigenous coal by China and India could add appreciably to the world's pollution load. However, the developed countries consume far more raw materials and energy than the poorer countries are expected to do throughout the next century.

Global warming is an especially serious problem. The 1996 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate." Global temperature may rise by 1-3.5 degrees centrigrade (35-39 degrees Fahrenheit), and sea level by 15-95 centimeters, over the course of the next century. Some progress is being made to combat the problem of global warming; ministers from 160 countries agreed to a legally binding protocol at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change at Kyoto. This protocol demands that industrialized countries cut greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels.


With good policy, growth and improved environmental conditions can coexist. For example, China's forest coverage has increased 1% between 1985 and 1995 due to a large-scale reforestation campaign during this period.... Too many government policymakers are unqualified and make disastrous decisions based on myths that contribute to ecologically dangerous areas. One myth was that the biosphere can only handle 1 billion people - but this depends on what the people do. Another was that natural resources limit evolution - but novel technologies have beaten environmental limits and new ones will be more efficient, place less demand on natural resources, and prevent pollution. Linear Industrial Age thinking also leads to these mistakes.... We are making some progress in pollution control through such agreements as the Montreal Protocol and the Vienna Pact, but much work remains to be done.... The private sector in the poorer countries is too small to provide much leadership.... The population rates are falling rapidly in most of the developing countries, while they have declined to the zero level in most of the developed regions.... As people's wealth rises, pollution increases, but as wealth increases, further pollution per capita drops because people can pay for solutions. Waste is increasing rapidly, but this problem is solvable ultimately.... Carbon dioxide looks like the longest term problem.... There is almost infinite substitutability. So the price mechanism will drive markers to the alternatives.... This "environmental Kuznet's curve" hypothesis is disputed.... The problem now is renewable resources, such as fish (in the global commons), food, etc.... Although pollution would probably increase with rapid economic growth in Russia, the reverse is not true. Pollution continued even when our economy shrunk, owing to lack of control of industry and old technology. The environment is not a priority at this time; the environmental share of the Russian federal budget this year is 0.5%. The US spends five times more on defense than environment; Russia spends 50 times more.... Per capita income will increase for most people in the world; with such increases come greater consumption of natural resources and energy.

Actions to Address Issue 7, with a Range of Views on These Actions

7.1. Governments should initiate higher tariffs or taxes on polluting products or technologies, with the revenues collected to be used to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safe technologies. By the same token, reduce import tariffs on environmentally sound technologies, goods, and equipment.

This would require changes in WTO rules to implement.... Tariffs on trade should only be used on those environmental problems that are truly global. Nations should set taxes commensurate with their local situation…. Tariffs should reflect environmental costs. Pricing should include environmental costs, but how to know these costs? We need a system to assess natural resources and pollution's effects on the environment, e.g., "net energy" and ecological footprint analysis, as well as a system for collection and distribution of money raised from this mechanism.... In Russia there are no tariffs on imported "nature-oriented" technologies. To tax polluting products will require better-educated government decision-makers and a new ecological culture as a whole.... It's a good idea, but impossible to implement properly. There is no unified and realistic way to identify how much pollution each product creates. It is hard to collect environmental pollution taxes now. Pollution taxes set up the irresponsible idea that I have the right to pollute because I paid for it.... Countries are in the process of considering this.... As we learn more, the likelihood of this action's implementation increases.... Use preferential policies rather than punitive approaches and build the capacity of the public to make better environmental decisions.... Also consider incentives to introduce less-polluting technologies and production processes.... The income produced from these taxes and tariffs might not go to subsidize the acquisition of environmentally safer technologies because of corruption and inability to identify the technologies. However, I agree that we should take leadership on this issue and begin working on legislation about "ecological security."

7.2. Governments, with some leadership from the private sector and in cooperation with scientific research, should include environmental costs in the pricing of natural resources and products.

Economic and environmental policy should be created together as a sustainable economic policy. This is very good, but very difficult to implement properly. How do you measure the costs?.... Include the cost in destruction of resources.... Corporations will fight it.... It is partly realized in some parts of our country, and we are taking leadership to continue implementation. It is included in the Annual State Report (Russia) and in the president's decree about the model of sustainable development. But most of the implementation of this action is only on paper.... Governments don't control the prices; the global market and cartels control the prices of natural resources.... Adjust the production systems instead.... This action will kill our industry; it is an absurdity. There is no close relation between pollution and profit.

7.3. UN organizations, with some leadership by governments, should establish an international technology bank, funded by country pledges, that could acquire the rights to innovate "green" technologies so as to make them more easily available to environmentally less advantaged countries.

The bank should focus first on the most ecologically dangerous regions.... Such a bank should have direct links to corporations.... The first step has been taken with the Global Ecology Fund and with the Global Environmental Facility.... The African Development Bank could open a section to address this issue.... This will work when the problems are considered urgent enough.... Most Chinese people instinctively think that the developed countries' objective in these kinds of issues is to suppress the economic success of poorer countries. For this reason, UN organizations are the best mechanisms to implement this.... Such a bank makes sense, but not under the UN.... Governments should stay away from control to avoid corruption.... The World Bank, UNDP, etc., have taken some actions in this direction, although it is not very realistic to prevent pollution. Instead, perfect relevant regulations and laws for family planning, natural resources utilization, waste recycling, and environmental protection.

7.4. Governments and international organizations should continue to support and promote all modes of family planning by subsidizing and distributing contraceptives and by promoting programs to improve health care, to diminish infant mortality, to improve literacy, and to involve women in the monetary economy.

The development of education and the improvement of quality of life are the most effective policies that leads to other solutions. Focusing on these issues, rather than the speed of population reduction, is more essential.... This action is a top priority of the Ghana Vision 2020 framework for policy, but there is conflict over giving condoms to children; we don't want to encourage the sexual activity of youth, yet TV programming promotes sexual activity. ... There is no substitute for economic growth.... Religious opposition and political rivalry prevent this from being more effective.

7.5. Governments, with some assistance from international organizations, should establish a system of national accounts that includes the economic impacts of the depletion of natural resources.

This will work, but the problems are not yet considered urgent enough.... Although not organized like this excellent action suggests, some countries have begun policy changes in this direction, such as banning export of some tree species.... There are great difficulties in establishing neutral measures for this.... Instead, consider the establishment of a sustainable development index that takes nature, society, and the economy into consideration.

7.6. Governments, with some leadership from the private sector, should encourage placement labels on all consumer products and open information that indicates whether they have been produced in a sustainable manner.

Labeling is good, but difficult for developing countries' trade. Although it seems very reasonable, lower-income countries do not know how to judge this and would need external assistance. The definition and measurements necessary to carry this out are not now possible.... It won't work; it's too easy to exploit labeling for protection of domestic products and discrimination against competing products.... WTO rules need changing to implement.

7.7. Governments, in cooperation with international organizations, should encourage nations, perhaps through treaties, to abolish environmentally inefficient subsidies.

This will work once an international consensus is reached on the definitions of environmentally inefficient subsidies.... It is essential to eliminate subsidies.... Our government would like to cooperate on this.... This action is difficult to implement, but that is the current direction.... Methodologies for assessing environmental efficiency include "net energy" and "ecological footprint analysis."…. Some believe that changing laws and attitudes are more important than finding new technologies or scientific breakthroughs.

7.8. Governments, in cooperation with UN organizations, should create tradable pollution permits that fix global emission limits for countries or industrial sectors.

This is very reasonable and will work once target emissions are established. The automobile industry established Partners for a New Generation of Vehicles as a private industry research consortium. Could this action divert funds from consortia like this?…. This won't work until we know what criteria and standards are to be used for these permits and who determines what is polluting and what are the acceptable or tolerable limits.... Make sure this does not favor obsolete plants and technologies that retard innovation.

7.9.* Governments should emphasize programs that promote population dispersion and slow urbanization; this includes locating new production plants in the countryside.

Make small farming more profitable, make new laws to get more land to people, change tribal control of land, expand small-scale manufacturing, electricity, roads, cellular or direct satellite telephony in the rural area. The Grameen Bank in Bangladesh is now selling cellular radios to microenterprises in rural areas to improve their business growth.... Consider actions that make it more expensive to be congested.... Urbanization is great for ecology, reduces fertility rates, and provides more efficient use of energy and transportation. You have to ask why people flee to the city.... It's better to concentrate on factories favorable for recycling and treatment.... Make combinations of factories that can use the waste of one as the resource for another.... Urbanization and industrialization have a positive role in helping rural people to get rid of poverty. Instead, encourage environmentally sound urbanization through ecologically oriented management principals.... Aggregation of population is easier to manage.... Re-ruralization is not likely to work because it will lead to considerable hardships, arbitrary interventions, high costs, and corruption.


Add more incentives in this list of actions to attract people to create environmentally sustainable growth. Add positive collaboration among government industry and the public as a motivation toward improving behavior and the better use of technology…. The Millennium Project could help by advancing a new vision of the complex interactions among population, economic growth, environment, and resources. This helps break away from dogmas and myths. A new ecological paradigm should be developed as well as a new model of the knowledge-based society.... Improve environmental and ecological consciousness.... It is essential to build trust among nations so that policies are not seen as one taking advantage of the other. This will require very powerful educational efforts.... From an ecological engineering view, it is better to deal with wastes and pollutants in a limited region with a phased approach in the management of wastes.... Owing to the Cultural Revolution, China did not participate in the international debate about growth in the 1970s. As a result, it is just now learning the lessons it missed.... The list only has economic control measures…. Actions 2.7.1 to 2.7.3 are merely technical approaches that are not wrong, but are not the keys to the solution. A change in consciousness is the key.... We need environmental law to be transnational law, not international law, to accommodate so many different legal systems.

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Environmental Security Study - Table of Content