Millennium Project

International Study on Counterterrorism

Anti-Terrorism Scenarios

Questionnaire on policies that may contribute to counter terrorism


ANTI-TERRORISM  SCENARIOS
by
Theodore J. Gordon

Abstract
Policis/Actions
Introduction
The Scenarios (abstract)
Possible Policies
Analysis
Moves and Countermoves
Next Steps
Full text of scenarios
Contributors
Notes On The Construction Of Scenarios



ABSTRACT

Shortly after the September 11th attacks, anti-terrorist scenarios were requested on-line of participants on listserves of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University and the World Future Studies Federation. Nine full scenarios were offered and these were analyzed to identify and rate policies that might be helpful in achieving peace and stability. Factors involved in the rating were: apparent plausibility, effectiveness in eliminating terrorism if implemented, and lack of downside potential. This work was posted on-line with a further request for comments, modifications to existing scenarios and added scenarios. Many comments were received. This paper report contains the results of the feedback process.

The principal scenarios were:

ESCALATION:  A long war involving attack and counter attack through biological and nuclear saber rattling. The poppy fields of Afghanistan are attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it is a long war. (Gordon)

COUNTER MINDSET:  Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism as reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit. They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right. The strategies followed by the international community addressed this mindset. Television, radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to reinforce the idea that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration of the right and proper image of Islam. A "Global Partnership for Development" gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. In short, this was an “intellectual arms race” (Glenn)

ROOT CAUSES:  The US led military war against terrorism failed to end terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving the provision of  minimal standards of health, education, services and housing, worldwide. After a short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements, terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis was placed on education by nations of the world to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. (Gutierrez)

SOCRATIC JUSTICE:  The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer. The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then focused on new modes of international cooperation. (Gordon)

THE WILD WEST:  US and Allied military strikes led to endless escalation in a war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the process of decline, with terror meeting terror. The CIA got back into business on a big scale. Nations already poor became poorer.  (Inayatullah)

THE PEACEFUL COWBOY:  The US sought means to cooperate with other nations to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great deal of wild west posturing continued. There were three parts to its strategy: improved internal security; enhanced intelligence; and economic action.. Eventually, protection against terrorism has become almost a habit. (Barton)

THE NEXT YEAR:  An invasion of the Taliban areas results in the execution of the Taliban- held UN aid workers. This provides additional moral support for more military strikes. The US considered withdrawing support for Israel unless they reduced their military severity. Casualties mounted.  Bin Laden was apparently assassinated by one of his men but more likely by Alliance special forces. (Rogers)

FORTRESS USA/OECD:  Borders were closed, locked down.  This led to general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration.  in the short run. It provided the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty resulted. (Inayatullah)

ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC:  Key international NGO’s formed a global council that believed that the major impediment to lasting peace and global security was the lack of a global civic ethic. A World Public Service was formed in which volunteers took on global ethical management tasks in international conflict resolution. Their strategy: potential combatants have to agree to mediation and to implement the outcomes thereof.  Failing this, sustained ongoing sanctions would follow. Comprehensive military action overseen by a global peace force would be a last resort. (Wildman)

COLONIALISM REBORN:   After the US destroys the Taliban regime, internal conflicts in Afghanistan cause local rioting and escalating conflicts. bin Laden’s death (or capture) creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim countries. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the country in the form of food, quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, and infrastructure. In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process and thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan to the Middle East. An unexpected terrorist event dramatically changes the situation which then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th centuries. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.

CALL ON THE UN: The investigation that "followed the money" to map the criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely complex and the speed of international financial markets made this task more difficult than anticipated. It became clear that the US experience in Afghanistan would become similar to the USSR’s, but complicated by continued terrorism at home. This situation lasted for more than one year and induced some serious political changes both in different Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater influence and in the US too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. The "anti-global" movement gained influence, and new leaders with new policies appeared. The UN was seen as potentially more useful in settling international disputes than direct interventionism had proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still unsolved, was taken over by the International Criminal Court.

Other scenarios envisioned the successful rising up of local forces in those countries where the terrorism is based and achieving a situation in which terrorism gradually disappears or is reduced to its minimum.

Outside of this effort, the New York University’s Interactive Telecommunications Program identified about 25 possible scenarios, but focused on five that they thought most critical.



Policies/Actions

All these scenarios were reviewed to identify promising policies from the standpoint of anticipated effectiveness, downside risk and plausibility. The top rated near term and long-term policies were:

Short Term Policies/Actions

· Financial: Take all possible action to impede the financial capabilities of terrorist organizations.
· Defense: Employ vigorous anti-terrorist measures (e.g. US marshals on all airline flights) and at nuclear power plants.
· Political: Recognize that the real enemy is NOT small groups of fanatics, but a mindset held by the Political Islamisists and millions of sympathizers.
· Humanitarian: Avoid a human catastrophe in Afghanistan through US aid.
· Information: Strengthen international and domestic cooperation among intelligence agencies; intensify CIA activities, grant more power to law enforcement.
· Defense: Form, at the Office of Homeland Security, a futurist think tank, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes.
· Political: Enlist many countries, particularly Muslim countries in the anti- terrorist Alliance.
· Political: Continue to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international community.
· Defense: Initiate expanded and urgent energy R&D to minimize dependence on oil as soon as possible.
· Defense: Put in place corporate emergency plans.
· Crime: Establish new anti-money laundering strategies.
· Political: Ratify the International Criminal Court by the US.

Long Term Policies/Actions

· Political: Establish UN Trusteeship Council to administer Afghanistan’s transition to a new government.
· Defense: Perform R&D to improve spying technology.
· Defense: Build resilience and redundancies into the communications, energy, and command and control infrastructure.
· Humanitarian: Create a World Public Service composed of volunteers that mediate global issues and help in ethical management.
· Information: Conduct “#38;social marketing” programs to encourage moderate Islamic voices to speak up.
· Political: US to promote the growth of a system of international justice and law.
· Political: Try bin Laden and others in the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity.
· Humanitarian: Create a “#38;Global Partnership for Development” to give reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists; act to achieve minimal standards of health, education, services and housing in a global strategy; initiate a massive and prolonged human aid campaign.
· Political: Hold a special session of the UN directed toward a new global alliance against terrorism.
· Military: Establish a common strategy for NATO, the European Union and Russia; this common strategy is to be used as a base for later agreements with China, India, Japan and other regional organizations to achieve global responses to terrorism.
· Political: Create more effective sanctions that target just the criminals and not citizens
· Humanitarian: Create and promote curricula specializing in moral decision-making and programs that include respect for diversity and equal rights.
· Humanitarian: Promote technological innovation in poorer countries.
· Political: Include ethical foresight and analysis in the development of foreign policy.



INTRODUCTION

With the help of people from several countries, a set of anti terrorism scenarios has been produced in the hope of finding policies that may prove productive in reducing terrorism and promoting peace over the next few decades. This is an on-going process open to all who care to make a contribution.

This process began on September 12, 2001 with email requests for scenarios dealing with anti-terrorism addressed to the listserves of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) and the Millennium Project (MP) of the American Council for the United Nations University. The first set of scenarios was placed on-line and additional scenarios, updates, modifications and comments were requested.  A significant number were received and this October 31, 2001 version includes the feedback. The process continues and latest version of these scenarios and policies will be available on this web site. Anyone who cares to contribute new scenarios, improvements of those posted, or comments is invited to do so.

The policies featured in these scenarios were listed and assessed in terms of their apparent plausibility, effectiveness in eliminating terrorism if implemented, and lack of downside potential. These assessments were my own and readers may substitute their judgments for those in this paper. In any event, it is hoped that every reader will reach a conclusion and carry forward ideas about what ought to be done to policy makers in their countries. Further, these scenarios and others to come should be updated as real life unfolds so that they can become a dynamic record of futurist thinking about how the world can be made a more peaceful and stable place.
All of the scenarios have a major author whose name is included with the scenario; some scenarios have multiple contributors. Many other people made suggestions about scenario elements; others said that they (or their students - from universities to primary school) would soon be writing new scenarios following the spirit of this work. We have also included some perceptions that flow from post September 11, 2001 scenarios constructed by another group (New York University).

The scenarios run only a few pages each and the policies are presented as single clauses. Clearly the scenarios and the policies can be and ought to be expanded and explored in much greater detail. This is only a start. Feedback and additional scenarios are welcome; please email jglenn@igc.org with copy to tedjgordon@worldnet.att.net and acunu@igc.org.
 



THE SCENARIOS

The scenarios included in this analysis were selected for their distinct points of view, diversity and intrinsic interest. They ranged in content from glimpses of the hell of escalating attack and counter attack to benign sketches of accommodation. The scenarios are abstracted below followed by the full text form.

In reading these scenarios, please remember scenarios are not forecasts - they are meant only to show plausible worlds and that they may be normative or exploratory.  The object of producing a wide- ranging set is to identify policies that seem likely to “work” in any of the diverse worlds. These policies are the “good bets” since they are relatively independent of the worlds around them. (Notes on the Construction of Scenarios provides a detailed discussion of  the scenario space.)

The nine scenarios are:

1) ESCALATION
2) COUNTER MINDSET: The Intellectual arms race to 2005
3) ROOT CAUSES
4) SOCRATIC JUSTICE
5) THE WILD WEST
6) THE PEACEFUL COWBOY
7) THE NEXT YEAR
8) FORTRESS USA/OECD
9) ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC
10) COLONIALISM REBORN
11) CALL ON THE UN
12) Other Scenarios
13) New York University Scenarios



Abstract form of the scenarios

Scenario 1. ESCALATION

Initial and secondary attacks by the US, UK and Russia- augmented by Ranger and Special Forces to capture terrorists, toppled the Taliban, and destroyed infrastructure associated with weapons of mass destruction. Further provocation came from a massive terrorist bio-attack in the US. Intense US domestic pressure for an even stronger military response and nuclear saber rattling ensued. Terrorists get publicity through terror; international terrorism was finally perceived by the Alliance as a ghastly theater, a power play on a world stage, demonstrating to the billions of largely uncommitted Muslims that the West, for all its Coca Cola and McDonalds, IMF, and military prowess, was no match for Islam in its pure form. Result: there were significant attempts to impose controls over access to the Internet by groups with messages of hate.  Information controls were instituted to deny terrorists propaganda platforms. With escalation came much more advanced security, high tech bio-detectors, and systems for personnel recognition and identification. The Office of Homeland Security, frustrated by providing defense against the last attack, not the next one, formed a futurist think tank, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes. After US nuclear saber rattling, the UN Security Council enacted resolutions requiring the destruction of existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons supplies, and chemical and biological weapons, with adequate mandatory international inspection and verification. The poppy fields are attacked with Agent Orange to dry up a principal source of terrorist income. But it is a long war.

Full Text



Scenario 2. COUNTER MINDSET: The Intellectual arms race to 2005

Political Islamisists saw secular Western capitalism as reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit. They believed that Islam’s mission was now to set the world right. The International Community believed that unless this mindset was addressed, terrorism would continue even if the entire al Qaeda network were to be destroyed. All strategies were directed toward affecting this mindset. For example, several leaders recommended that when bin Laden and his lieutenants was captured, they be tried in the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. A UN Trusteeship Council was authorized by the General Assembly to administer Afghanistan's transition to a new government. This helped defuse the Islam vs. the West mentality and allied fears of a long-term occupation. Cognitive science formed the basis for a new kind of information warfare used in this mindset battle. Television, radio, software, magazine, music materials were designed to enlighten, to make less crazy, and increase curiosity about alternative views of life. All of this demonstrated that this was a war against terrorism and promoted the restoration of the right and proper image of Islam. Other policies included: an early warning system to publicize emerging dangerous situations to build public pressure for early or preventative responses, shared intelligence among security organizations, more effective sanctions that targeted just criminals and not citizens; new counter money laundering strategies; and global dialogues on issues that inflamed terrorists. In addition, a "Global Partnership for Development" gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists. Yet since nuclear materials, small arms, and biological materials were smuggled by organized crime for some terrorist networks, the world is still uncertain about the degree of the continuing threat. With its income, organized crime can literally buy a country. In short, we have set in place an “intellectual arms race” to counter the terrorist's mindset and the systems that support this race may well also lessen future government corruption and the power of organized crime. If so, then the deaths 11 September 2001 will not have been in vain.

Full Text



Scenario 3. ROOT CAUSES

The US led military war against terrorism failed to end terrorism. The US proposed a different global strategy involving NATO, the European Union and Russia. This common strategy was used as a base for later agreements with China, India, Japan and other regional organizations with a view to offering a global response. The strategy included providing minimal standards of health, education, services and housing, worldwide. After a short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements, terrorism started to lose ground. A strong emphasis was placed on education by nations of the world to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. Two new features acquired importance at this point: a) an agreement on the embargoing of global multimedia live information on terrorist acts, showing only some selected pieces of information through their usual channels and b) a more suitable international coordination scheme for intelligence and security organizations in their struggle against terrorism, together with the establishment of international courts and a common legislation framework aimed at overcoming national weaknesses and eliminating sanctuaries.  In major Islamic countries, participative democratic forms became the instruments of secularization of political power. These countries, under a new generation leadership and without losing sight of the strong social character of their religion, are now starting to redirect their focus towards economic development.

Full Text



Scenario 4. SOCRATIC JUSTICE

The US used all of the powers that the UN could offer. The US ratified the International Criminal Court and encouraged other nations to do so. The US brought captured terrorists and criminals to the Court and then focused on new modes of international cooperation. The perception is that for the Court to work, some compromises must be made with national sovereignty. Special attention was given to education; the Madrassahs teaching fanaticism were replaced. Inter-religious studies sought to find the common moral values and attitudes acceptable to all cultures. “Social marketing” programs encouraged moderate Islamic voices to speak up. Dialog between Islamic mullahs and interpreters of the Koran with those representing modernity were promoted.

Full Text



Scenario 5. THE WILD WEST

President Bush evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, calling for a campaign against the terrorists. US and Allied military strikes led to endless escalation in a war that apparently was won, but over time sped up the process of decline, with terror meeting terror. The CIA got back into business on a big scale. Nations already poor became poorer.  OECD states became militarily stronger, while individuals became more fearful and anxiety prone.  In the end there is a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism.

Full Text



Scenario 6. THE PEACEFUL COWBOY

The US sought means to cooperate with other nations to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great deal of wild west posturing continued. There were three parts to its strategy: improved internal security; enhanced intelligence; and economic action. Although some laws were changed to grant more powers to law enforcement and intelligence operatives, civil liberties watchdog groups prevented this from becoming more than an inconvenience. Sociological and psychological analysis of known terrorists led to profiling and questioning of persons who fit the profile. Eventually, protection against terrorism has become almost a habit.

Full Text



Scenario 7. THE NEXT YEAR

The Allies began massive bombing of desolate regions in the hope that by annihilating the haystack the needle would get hit.  Hawks pushed for use of tactical nukes but they were over-ruled. An invasion of the Taliban areas followed and the Taliban- held UN aid workers were executed in retaliation. This provided additional moral support for more military strikes. The US considered withdrawing support for Israel unless they reduced their military severity. Casualties mounted.  Bin Laden was apparently assassinated by one of his men but more likely by Alliance special forces. The US considered their successes and reflected on the opportunity to take out Saddam Hussein, with Iranian help. King Abdullah of Jordan emerged as a leader of global stature, with leanings towards British style diplomacy. US foreign policy began to include consideration of ethical foresight. The UN held a special session offering a program of threat reduction. Now East and West, Arab and non- Arab, Maoists and Taoists co-operate and share intelligence that ensures their own peoples greater liberty, freedom and security.

Full Text



Scenario 8. FORTRESS USA/OECD

Borders were closed, locked down.  This led to general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration.  in the short run. It provided the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty resulted. Democracies became a sham with real power devolving to the right wing that became aligned with the military/police complex. The response to US/OECD closing its borders from the Islamic world is Fortress Islam. The economy – oil –remain a force that links the two fortresses, but other associations continue to drift away.

Full Text



Scenario 9. ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC

Key international NGO’s formed a global council that believed that the major impediment to lasting peace and global security was the lack of a global civic ethic. The development of an Ethic was based on experiential citizen education and participation that linked action and thought. A World Public Service was formed in which volunteers took on global ethical management tasks and mediated the Arab/ Israeli conflict, developed ethno-educational systems in East Timor, and worked on conflict resolution as part of the War Crimes Tribunals in Africa and Europe. They developed an Appropriate Response Technology crucial in the fight against terrorism. Combatants have three chances to resolve issues: potential combatants have to agree to mediation and to implement the outcomes thereof.  Failing this, sustained ongoing sanctions would follow. Comprehensive military action overseen by a global peace force would be a last resort.

Full Text



Scenario 10. COLONIALISM REBORN

After the US destroys the Taliban regime, internal conflicts in Afghanistan cause local rioting and escalating conflicts. bin Laden’s death (or capture) creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim countries.  A new spectacular terrorist attack seems less plausible. The US induces the UN to participate in nation building. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the country in the form of food, quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, and infrastructure. In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process. Thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan to the Middle East. An unexpected terrorist event dramatically changes the situation, triggering a chain reaction in the entire region. The situation then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th centuries and limited and mixed (military-economic-political) yet permanent outside interventions become necessary. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.

Full Text



Scenario 11. CALL ON THE UN

The investigation that "followed the money" to map the criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely complex and the speed of international financial markets made this task more difficult than anticipated. It became clear that the US experience in Afghanistan would become similar to the USSR’s, but complicated by continued terrorism at home. This situation lasted for more than one year and induced some serious political changes both in different Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater influence and in the US too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. The "anti-global" movement gained influence, and new leaders with new policies appeared. The UN was seen as potentially more useful in settling international disputes than direct interventionism had proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still unsolved, was taken over by the International Criminal Court.

Full Text



Other Scenarios

The Beijing node of the Millennium Project offered four scenario snapshots. They said:

Terrorism is not a new social phenomenon. It has existed for thousands of years. Good and evil are the two sides of human nature. An ancient Chinese philosopher, Xunzi said: human nature is basically evil. The 9/11 disaster is…. (an example of) the evil nature of human beings…  Terrorism has deep social, economic, cultural, spiritual, ethnic, psychological and even ecological driving forces. It is a complex system issue and cannot be disarmed through cause-effect linear thinking. Any action will incur positive or negative feedback and influence the whole world’s peace, security and sustainability.

From this orientation come these vignettes:

Positive feedback:

1. No action except condemnation. Terrorism becomes more and more unbridled, civilization is threatened and world security and peace disappear and terrorism controls the whole world in the end.

2. Hate to hate or tooth to tooth with immediate response and direct military strikes, the military base of terrorism is destroyed, injured families are consoled, and the power of justice and the confidence of striking terrorism is shown to the whole world. But more innocent citizens suffer from the strikes while the terrorists hide within them. At the same time, terrorists initiate new attacks, resulting in long term mental chaos in the civilized society. This strategy over evaluates terrorism and over evaluates the role and effects of revenge on terrorism.

These two scenarios are examples of positive feedback and cause global world instability. The next two are examples of negative feedback and are more stable.

Negative feedback:

3. Love to hate in which cultural, economic, spiritual and legislative action speed up the process of conflict resolution in hot areas of the world, reducing the gap between rich and poor, enhancing justice, equity and faith in those poor areas, and encouraging attitudes to change from hate to love. This transition leads to long-term sustainability, but temporally some people are injured. Small-scale domestic political instability in US results together with criticism of the government.

4. Local force against terrorism which begins with love to hate as mentioned above. In addition, local people rise against terrorism in those countries where the terrorism is based and encourage internal force to act against terrorism. Measures includes financial, institutional, spiritual, ethic and political. In this scenario, terrorism is not overestimated and soon becomes isolated and extinguished. Local people in terrorism-based countries have time and resources to act against terrorism. The world remains peaceful, people remain confident, and the terrorism gradually disappears or is reduced to its minimum. The future is still optimistic. The global order is evolves to a new pattern replacing the current monopole pyramid pattern.

In the analysis, which appears later in this paper, strategies from these scenarios are referred to as China 1-4.



NYU Scenarios

Other groups, outside of the current study, also used scenarios to examine the possible outcome of policies options; the New York University’s Interactive Telecommunications Program prepared an interesting set.  All of their scenarios started with:

Attack on World Trade Center - Unprecedented damage and planning US vows some form of retaliation - accuses Bin Laden and claims proof - isolates his supporting nations - assembles allies -creates "Homeland Defense." The US slowly moves into Afghanistan. There are no further attacks, and fear grows.

They identified about 25 possible scenarios, but focused on five that they thought most critical:
.
• An Empire Stretched Too Thin: US caught in never-ending quagmire.
• International McCarthyism: US wins, and becomes a social-control-oriented corporate state.
• Black Market World: War leads to fragmentation, "gated nations," a war between rich and poor nations, and increased reliance on underground economies.
• Gloom and Boom: Pakistan goes radical-Islamic, leading to nuclear attacks and Chernobyls everywhere.
• Blooming World: The only optimistic future of the five, in which the war's imperatives change the culture for the better.

Strategies from NYU study

In the policy analysis, which appears later in this paper, strategies from these scenarios are referred to as NYU 1-5.



POSSIBLE POLICIES

All of the scenarios were reviewed and the policies that shaped them were listed. Duplications were eliminated and policies were combined where the intent and approach was similar. Then, the policies were grouped into Short Term (that is, implementation is required within weeks) and Long Term (that is, implementation is expected months or years from now). Within each of these, a further sorting by class of action was made:

The policies were then judged by the author as to their:


The ratings ranged from Very High to Very Low. Thus the very best of the suggestions would have been rated as having:

Finally, a personal judgment was added as to the action that might be taken soon, such as "do it" or "study it".
 
Short Term Policies/ Actions Scenarios Plausibility Unexpected downside Effectiveness Recommendation
Financial: Take all possible action to impede the financial capabilities of terrorist organizations. 1,6, 11,
NYU 2
Very high Very low Very high Do it
Financial: Initiate very tough economic sanctions against nations that harbor or sponsor terrorists
NYU 2
Very High 
Low
Moderate
Do it
Information: Strengthen international and domestic cooperation among intelligence agencies; intensify CIA activities, grant more power to law enforcement. 2,3,5,
6,7
Very high Low High Do it
Information: Encourage telecommuting as an alternative to travel
NYU 2
Moderate
Low
Low
Table it
Political: Continue to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international community. 2 Very high Very low Uncertain Do it
Political: Enlist many countries, particularly Muslim countries in the anti-terrorist Alliance 2 Very high Low High Do it
Political: Follow policies that establish the US a defender of justice on a global scale and acted for “liberty and justice for all”
NYU 5
Moderate Very low Low Do it
Political: Ratify the International Criminal Court by the US 4, 11 High Very low High Do it
Political: Consider means to pressure Israel into reducing its military severity; apply pressure for settlement. 7, 10 Low High Moderate Maybe
Political: Use scenarios and other methods of futures research to help devise peace strategies. 9 Low Very low Uncertain Can't hurt
Political: Convene international NGO’s to form a council to advise on methods for dealing with terrorism and achieving lasting peace. 9 Low Low Moderate Just more talk?
Political: Recognize that the real enemy is NOT small groups of fanatics, but a mindset held by the Political Islamisists and millions of sympathizers. 2 High
Very Low
Very High Do it
Political: Strengthen the UN; initiate a UN-sponsored project on “Peace and Conflicts” that includes scenarios from the perspective of extremists as well as other actors. 
4
NYU 5
Moderate
Very Low
Low
Just more talk?
Military Perform an initial military strike augmented with a series of Ranger and Special Forces incursions. 1,
China 2
Very high Low Moderate Do it
Military: Direct military attacks against research and production infrastructure associated with biological and other weapons of mass destruction. 1 Very high Moderate Moderate Do it
Crime: Establish new money laundering strategies 2, 11 Very high Very low Uncertain Do it
Media: Establish an early warning system at the UN Secretariat that is transparent to the media and NGOs and could deploy rapid media systems to make emerging situations known to the world in order to build public pressure for early or preventative responses 2 Moderate Low Moderate Find out how to do it
Defense: Re-formulate security and defense strategy in the US. 3, 10 Very high Moderate (watch freedoms and Bill of Rights) Uncertain Do it
Defense: Initiate expanded and urgent energy R&D to minimize dependence on oil as soon as possible
NYU 5
Very high Very low Moderate Do it
Defense: Perform sociological and psychological analysis is essential of known terrorists, create profiles from these analyses, and interview those who fit the profile at essential points such as immigration, airports, applicants for pilot’s licenses, etc. 6, 
NYU 1
Moderate Moderate High Do it to minimize impact on personal privacy and intrusion
Defense: Require ID cards at all times in the U.S.
NYU 1
Moderate High Moderate Tough move
Defense: Put in place corporate emergency plans. 3 Very high Very low Moderate Do it
Defense: Employ vigorous anti-terrorist measures (e.g. US marshals on all airline flights and at nuclear power plants). 5, 6,
NYU 4
Very high Very low Very high Do it
Defense: Create a system of isolation hospitals in anticipation of the possibility of large- scale epidemics. 5 High Low High Do it
Defense: Examine all who enter the country for possible viruses
NYU 1
High
High
Moderate
Study it
Defense: Use high tech devices for terrorist warning and detection (e.g. bio chips, massively deployed TV cameras, etc.) 5 High Low (abuse possible) Moderate Do it
Defense: Create a system of quarantine hospitals in anticipation of the possibility of large- scale epidemics. 5 High Low High Do it
Defense: Use high tech devices for terrorist warning and detection (e.g. bio chips, massively deployed TV cameras, etc.) 5 High Low (abuse possible) Moderate Do it
Defense: Form, at the Office of Homeland Security, a futurist skunk works, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes 1 Very High Low High Do it
Defense: Close borders and return to isolationism 9 Very low High Moderate Table it
Defense: Destroy all stockpiles of smallpox virus 4 High Very low Moderate (would be very high if destruction were certain) Do it
Humanitarian: Avoid a human catastrophe in Afghanistan through US aid. 4 Very high Very low High Do it

 
 
Long Term Policies/ Actions Scenarios Plausibility Unexpected downside Effectiveness Recommendation
Financial: Pursue banking and NGO strategies that allow replacement of the terrorist front charitable institutions. 3, 11 High Low Moderate Consider how to make more effective
Financial: Engage in fiscal policies that mitigate the chances for economic depression 5 Low Low Moderate We wish we could
Information: Make state-of-the-art intelligence technology available to the public both to inform and protect. 2 High High Moderate Find out how to deny the technology to the terrorists
Information: Design an advanced information strategy to counter the terrorist's mindset. 2 High Low Uncertain Design of strategy must be excellent to avoid backfire
Information: Conduct “social marketing” programs to encourage moderate Islamic voices to speak up. 4, NYU 2 Very High Low High Careful design is necessary
Political: Enact UN Security Council resolutions to require the destruction of existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons supplies, and chemical and biological weapons, with adequate mandatory international inspection and verification. 1 Moderate, but High if US agrees Moderate (rouge weapons become a threat) High Do it
Political: Create more effective sanctions that target just the criminals and not citizens 2 Moderate Low Very High Study alternative approaches
Political: Try bin Laden and others in the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. 2 High Very Low High Do it
Political: Establish UN Trusteeship Council to administer Afghanistan's transition to a new government. 2, 10 Very High Very Low  Very High Do it
Political: End US policies of unilateralism (e.g. acting to abrogate the weapons in space treaty, Kyoto disagreements, etc.) 4, NYU 5 Low Low Very High Requires a change in US mindset
Political: Foster inter-religious dialog and promote the idea that war in the name of religion is not what religion teaches. 4 Moderate Low Moderate Try
Political: US to promote the growth of a system of international justice and law. 4, NYU 5 Very High Very Low Moderate Do it
Political: Address the circumstances in which there is an inherent conflict between national sovereignty and world justice. 4, NYU 5 Moderate Very Low Moderate Should be studied
Political: Strengthen controls over sales of weapon and advanced technologies. 7 Moderate Very Low Moderate Do it 
Political: Include ethical foresight and analysis in the development of foreign policy. 7 Moderate Very Low High Do it
Political: Hold a special session of the UN directed toward a new global alliance against terrorism. 7 Very High Low Moderate Do it
Political: Initiate a coalition of third world countries eg NATO. NYU 3 Low High Low Productive?
Military: Chemically attack opium fields to deny income to terrorists and reduce flow of drugs.  1 Moderate High Moderate Find ways to minimize long term effects
Military: Establish a common strategy for NATO, the European Union and Russia; this common strategy is to be used as a base for later agreements with China, India, Japan and other regional organizations to achieve global responses to terrorism. 3 High Low High Do it
Crime: Gain control over organized crime and its involvement with terrorism. 1, 2 Low Low Very High How can it be done?
Crime: Create a situation in which organized crime helps in dealing with terrorism. 7 Low Very High Uncertain Strange bedfellows, but it has happened before.
Media: Create mechanisms for authenticating news stories in the media, and reinforce a proper image of Islam. 1, 2 Moderate Low Moderate Do it
Media: Impose control over access to the Internet by groups with messages of hate.  1 Low Moderate Moderate Do it carefully
Media: Impose control over media content not only to deny a propaganda platform to terrorists but also to limit access to information that might make their actions more effective; embargo live information on terrorist acts. 1 Moderate 

(but wartime censorship is expected)

Moderate Moderate Consider it
Defense: Build resilience and redundancies into the energy, communications, command controle infrastructure. 1 Very High Very Low High Do it
Defense: Encourage US population to move from cities to countryside NYU 1 Low High Low Forget it
Defense: Perform R&D to improve spying technology. 1 Very High Very Low High Do it
Defense: Create, through the UN, a set of rules of storage, control, and movement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; as well as systems of effective inspection and monitoring. 4 High Low Moderate Do it
Defense: View UN peacekeeping as a matter of national security (and therefore the US pays its UN dues). 4, 11 Moderate Low Moderate Do it
Humanitarian: Maintain global dialogues over decades on issues that inflame terrorists and link the results into school curriculum. 2,3 Moderate Moderate Moderate Has to done right
Humanitarian: Create a "Global Partnership for Development" to give reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists; act to achieve minimal standards of health, education, services and housing in a global strategy; initiate a massive and prolonged human aid campaign. 3, 7 High Low High Study seriously; (similar to Global Marshall Plan(1)
Humanitarian: Replace the Madrassahs teaching fanaticism. 4 Moderate Moderate High Do it
Humanitarian: Promote technological innovation in poorer countries. 3 Moderate Very Low High Do it
Humanitarian: Place strong emphasis on education in order to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. 3 Moderate Very Low Moderate Do it to the extent possible
Humanitarian: Create and promote curricula specializing in moral decision-making and programs that include respect for diversity and equal rights. 4 Moderate Very Low High Do it to the extent possible
Humanitarian: Focus policies on issues separating haves and have-nots. 6 Moderate Low Moderate Study it
Humanitarian: Create a global civic ethic of participatory care and concern for others that can be promulgated worldwide. 9 Moderate Very Low Moderate Do it to the extent possible
Humanitarian: Promote and develop social innovation. 9 Moderate Very Low Moderate Do it to the extent possible
Humanitarian: Create a World Public Service composed of volunteers that mediate global issues and help in ethical management. 9 Very High Low High Do it

One additional suggestion that came from non-scenario correspondence (Lloyd) was: The United Nations should declare 11 September a World Wide day of 'Remembrance, Reflection, Reconciliation and Peace.'

Michael Marien, the editor of Future Survey has formed a set of ten questions that any scenario should address; those included here only partially meet his framework(2). Perhaps future scenarios can be more complete. :

1. Further Terrorist Attacks?
2. How Long a War?
3. What Outcome to the War?
4. Will the Allied Coalition Hold?
5. Will the Economy Thrive or Dive
6. Will Civil Liberties Be Significantly Curtailed
7. Will There Be Significant Privation and Sacrifice
8. Will the Global Environment Suffer
9. How Far Will Crackdowns on Money Laundering Go
10. How Far Will Other Global Reforms Be Pursued?

Perhaps questions like these can be asked at the beginning of any war, but wouldn't we like to know the answers? To these I add: Will we and our families survive?



ANALYSIS

These judgments used in the table above can be used to create an action agenda. The three criteria are not necessarily of equal weight: plausibility and effectiveness were assigned a weight of 10 and unexpected downside, a weight of 8. This recognizes the acceptable risk of a downside surprise. Then the judgments in the cells were assigned values (e.g. very high= 5, etc.) and weighted sums were calculated in the manner of a utility matrix. The highest possible score was 180; ranking those that scored above 100 produces this action agenda:
 

Short Term Policies/ Actions Score
Financial: All possible action should be taken to impede the financial capabilities of terrorist organizations 140
Defense: Employ vigorous anti-terrorist measures (e.g. US marshals on all airline flights) 140
Political: Recognize that the real enemy is NOT small groups of fanatics, but a mindset held by the Political Islamisists and millions of sympathizers. 130
Humanitarian: Avoid a human catastrophe in Afghanistan through US aid. 130
Information: Strengthen international and domestic cooperation among intelligence agencies; intensify CIA activities, grant more power to law enforcement. 122
Defense: Form, at the Office of Homeland Security, a futurist skunk works, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes 122
Political: Enlist many countries, particularly Muslim countries in the anti- terrorist Alliance 122
Political: Continue to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international community 120
Defense: Initiate expanded and urgent energy R&D to minimize dependence on oil as soon as possible 120
Defense: Put in place corporate emergency plans 120
Crime: Establish new money laundering strategies 120
Political: Ratify the International Criminal Court by the US 120
Military: Perform an initial military strike augmented with a series of Ranger and Special Forces incursions 112
Financial: Initiate very tough economic sanctions against nations that harbor or sponsor terrorists 112
Defense: Create a system of quarantine hospitals in anticipation of the possibility of large-scale epidemics 112
Defense: Destroy all stockpiles of smallpox virus 110
Military: Direct military attacks against research and production infrastructure associated with biological and other weapons of mass destruction. 104
Defense: Re-formulate security and defense strategy in the US. 104
Defense: Use high tech devices for terrorist warning and detection (e.g. bio chips, massively deployed TV cameras, etc.) 102

 
Long Term Policies/ Actions Score
Political: Establish UN Trusteeship Council to administer Afghanistan's transition to a new government. 140
Defense: Perform R&D to improve spying technology 130
Defense: Build resilience and redundancies into the communications, energy, and command and control infrastructure to avoid possible catastrophic disruptions from info-terrorism. 130
Humanitarian: Create a World Public Service composed of volunteers that mediate global issues and help in ethical management 122
Information: Conduct “social marketing” programs to encourage moderate Islamic voices to speak up 122
Political: US to promote the growth of a system of international justice and law 120
Political: Try bin Laden and others in the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity 120
Humanitarian: Create a "Global Partnership for Development" to give reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists; act to achieve minimal standards of health, education, services and housing in a global strategy; initiate a massive and prolonged human aid campaign. 112
Military: Establish a common strategy for NATO, the European Union and Russia; this common strategy is to be used as a base for later agreements with China, India, Japan and other regional organizations to achieve global responses to terrorism. 112
Political: Create more effective sanctions that target just the criminals and not citizens. 112
Humanitarian: Create and promote curricula specializing in moral decision-making and programs that include respect for diversity and equal rights. 110
Humanitarian: Promote technological innovation in poorer countries 110
Political: Include ethical foresight and analysis in the development of foreign policy 110
Political: End US policies of unilateralism (e.g. acting to abrogate the weapons in space treaty, Kyoto disagreements, etc.) 102
Defense: Create, through the UN, a set of rules of storage, control, and movement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; as well as systems of effective inspection and monitoring. 102
Crime: Gain control over organized crime and its involvement with terrorism. 102
Financial: Pursue banking and NGO strategies that allow detection and replacement of the terrorist front charitable institutions. 102
Information: Design an advanced information strategy to counter the terrorist’s mindset. 102
Humanitarian: Place strong emphasis on education in order to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. 100
Political: Strengthen controls over sales of   weapon and advanced technologies. 100
Political: Address the circumstances in which there is an inherent conflict between national sovereignty and world justice 100


MOVES AND COUNTER MOVES

Two responses have been received dealing with methods of anticipating terrorists’ moves. The first (Mesjasz), is in the form of any essay, and points out how, with further development, systems thinking might be helpful in anticipating the unfolding scenario.

How can systems thinking and complexity studies be helpful in predicting the unpredictable in the process of securitization of threats of terrorism? …Since one can hardly expect direct applications of mathematical models - with some exceptions mentioned above, attention must be paid to the use of concepts deriving from systems thinking and complexity studies as heuristic instruments - metaphors and analogies. . It must be emphasised that systems thinking and complexity studies should become an important instrument of security theory. Especially the social mechanisms of securitization/ desecuritization in the case of potential mega-terrorist genocide require further investigation.
In the second, one of the participants (Ted Fuller) said:
In complexity theory, the emergence of new patterns comes with symmetry breaking or phase transition, otherwise we continuously run faster to stand still (i.e. to remain competitive) -  known as the Red Queen Effect.  In game theory, tit-for-tat with lenience is a long-run winning strategy in the Prisoners Dilemma . There seems a paradox here, but it all depends on the co-evolutionary partner.

Symmetry breaking in the context you are studying could come from the creation of a Palestinian State and the handing over of USA military *supremacy* to reconstituted UN in real terms, or from a strategic (oil-based) alliance between USA and Russia, leaving Saudi and Middle East to move to a more polarized anti Western position, or many other possibilities…

Whatever happens, there seems a natural human tendency towards extremes  - and it is extreme values (intolerant, righteous and not cognisant of diversity) that seem to create the problems.

As far as terrorist thinking is concerned - they have the advantage of time and are probably many steps ahead in the co-evolutionary game.  They know how the USA thinks, but think differently - that is also asymmetrical.

Based on this thinking, Fuller developed a move-countermove table, reproduced in part below. The first column repeats many strategies of the earlier tables; column 2, possible “tit for tat” countermoves. A third column has been added to Fuller’s two-column table that indicates possible anticipatory defensive moves where some are apparent. At very least this table indicates the possible use of gaming and simulation in the construction of anti-terrorist policies.
 
Near Term Strategies Terrorist counter strategies Defensive Moves
Financial: All possible action should be taken to impede the financial capabilities of terrorist organizations. Financial: All possible action should be taken to impede the financial capabilities of USA Guard the system of international funds transfer
Political: Continue to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international community. Political: Continue to make clear that Islam is not the enemy of the international community. In our information campaign, anticipate the terrorist counter campaign.
Political: Follow policies that establish the US a defender of justice on a global scale and acted for "liberty and justice for all" Political: Follow policies that establish Islama defender of spiritualism on a global scale and acted for "spritualliberty and justice for all" In our information campaign, anticipate the terrorist counter campaign.
Political: Use scenarios and other methods of futures research to help devise peace strategies. Political: Use spiritual vision, scenarios and other methods of futures research to help devise strategies. Understand the spiritual visions
Military Perform an initial military strike augmented with a series of Ranger and Special Forces incursions. Military Perform an initial military strike augmented with a series of Ranger and Special Forces incursions. Be prepared
Military: Direct military attacks against research and production infrastructure associated with biological and other weapons of mass destruction. Military: Direct military attacks against research and production infrastructure associated with biological and other weapons of mass destruction. Protect the infrastructure
Crime: Establish new anti money laundering strategies Crime: Establish new money laundering strategies Be smart about possible techniques they might use and block them
Defense: Put in place corporate emergency plans. Defense: Put in place network emergency plans. Trough infiltration, understand the network emergency plans
Defense: Create a system of isolation hospitals in anticipation of the possibility of large- scale epidemics. Defense: Create a system of martyrdom in anticipation of the possibility of large- scale warfare. Understand the psychology of martyrdom and build defense on this understanding
Defense: Form, at the Office of Homeland Security, a futurist skunk works, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes Defense: Join, at the Office of Homeland Security, a futurist skunk works, charged with anticipating future terrorist attack modes Top notch security and confidentiality required

 
Long Term Strategies Terrorist counter strategies Defensive Moves
Financial: Pursue banking and NGO strategies that allow replacement of the terrorist front charitable institutions. Financial: Pursue banking and NGO strategies that allow replacement of the terrorist front charitable institutions. Anticipate financial strategies
Information: Design an advanced information strategy to counter the terrorist's mindset. Information: Design an advanced information strategy to counter the anti-terrorist's mindset. This is real information warfare
Political: Try bin Laden and others in the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity. Political: Raise leaders to martyr status  Gain irrefutable proof of crimes against humanity; allow dissidents to examine evidence.
Political: Foster inter-religious dialog and promote the idea that war in the name of religion is not what religion teaches. Political: Foster inter-religious dialog and promote the idea that war in the name of religion is not what religion teaches.  Is this a starting point. 
Political: US to promote the growth of a system of international justice and law. Political: Promote growth of a non-western system of international justice and law. In our information campaign, anticipate the terrorist counter campaign.
Political: Strengthen controls over sales of weapon and advanced technologies. Political: Use low-tech methods  Anticipate the low tech methods
Crime: Gain control over organized crime and its involvement with terrorism. Crime: Gain control over organized crime and its involvement with terrorism. Be alert to a terrorist- crime linkage
Crime: Create a situation in which organized crime helps in dealing with terrorism. Crime: Create a situation in which organized crime helps in terrorism. Merge the information flow about terrorism with that of crime.
Media: Create mechanisms for authenticating news stories in the media, and reinforce a proper image of Islam. Media: Create mechanisms for authenticating news stories in the media, and reinforce a proper image of Islam. In our information campaign, anticipate the terrorist counter campaign.
Media: Impose control over access to the Internet by groups with messages of hate.  Media: Use innocuous code.  Be vigilant to code and initiate counter 
Defense: Build resilience and redundancies into the communications, energy, and command and control infrastructure. Defense: Identify gaps in resilience and redundancies into the communications, energy, and command and control infrastructure.  Provide some Trojan Hourse gaps, easy to discover but with built in potential for terrorist capture.
Defense: Create, through the UN, a set of rules of storage, control, and movement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; as well as systems of effective inspection and monitoring. Defense: Understand, through the UN, a set of rules of storage, control, and movement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; as well as systems of effective inspection and monitoring. Build into these rules an understanding of terrorist opportunities and close the loopholes. 
Humanitarian: Create a "Global Partnership for Development" to give reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists; act to achieve minimal standards of health, education, services and housing in a global strategy; initiate a massive and prolonged human aid campaign. Humanitarian: Create a "Global Partnership for Development" to give reason for people to be sympathetic with terrorists; act to achieve minimal standards of health, education, services and housing in a global strategy; initiate a massive and prolonged human aid campaign. Make sure that such a partnership is clearly understood as an alliance initiative without conditions.
Humanitarian: Create a World Public Service composed of volunteers that mediate global issues and help in ethical management. Humanitarian: Create a World Public Service composed of volunteers that mediate global issues and help achieve results  Is this a point of cooperation?



NEXT STEPS

As reality unfolds, these scenarios will become out of date. They will require changes as our perceptions of plausible futures change. They will respond to new terrorist dangers and the accomplishments of the US and allies’ military strikes. New scenarios will be required and new policies will be postulated and tested. In addition not all people who read this material will agree with the subjective judgments that were used to score the policies. Therefore, these scenarios will be posted on interactive WEB sites for continual comment and review. NGO’s and classes dealing with public policy- from grammar schools to graduate school- may wish to build their own policy rich and value- laden scenarios. These scenarios and analysis may form an input to on-going work of the Millennium Project and other research. In the meantime, many futurists are in, or have contacts in, government agencies and NGO’s and can carry this kind of structured thinking forward. Advocate rationality. Search for common values where they can be found. We need not be of one voice, but call for systematic thinking about the future.

Ted Gordon
Old Lyme, CT.
October 10, 2001


Full text of the scenarios

1) ESCALATION
2) COUNTER MINDSET: The Intellectual arms race to 2005
3) ROOT CAUSES
4) SOCRATIC JUSTICE
5) THE WILD WEST
6) THE PEACEFUL COWBOY
7) THE NEXT YEAR
8) FORTRESS USA/OECD
9) ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC
10) COLONIALISM REBORN
11) CALL ON THE UN
12) Other Scenarios
13) New York University Scenarios
 

Scenario 1. ESCALATION

In the wake of September 11, 2001 there were calls for retribution and vengeance. US military forces were deployed and massive attacks seemed imminent. Public opinion polls in the US and elsewhere supported this anticipated retaliation. But the absolute proof of the responsibility for the attacks on US civilians which would have been required for the whole hearted military and political support of non Western nations was not in hand. Therefore other avenues were initially sought by the US. It was easy to freeze the more obvious financial assets of suspected terrorist groups. This was moderately but only temporarily effective.

A strike using Tomahawk guided missiles and conventional high altitude bombers, produce inconclusive results.  Lack of a quick and decisive victory gave rise to discontent in the US. Media, at first supportive of the administration, became critical, then cynical. When public opinion forced further action, a more focused series of Ranger and Special Forces incursions were used to capture suspected terrorists in Afghanistan and Iran. These raids were effective and casualties were minimal
Then a second terrorist attack occurred. The terrorists, mistaking the surgical response of the US and its allies as weakness, used biological weapons. The immigrant Afghanis carried the seeds of a worldwide epidemic of Ebola- like Crimean Congo. Lethal anthrax, probably of a non-natural variety, was reported in a newspaper office in Boca Raton, Florida (3).

At the Super Bowl in New Orleans, Mardi Gras time, in February, 2002, nobody paid the slightest attention to a truck that stopped briefly outside the Super Dome. Even if anyone had seen it, they couldn't have known that during its brief stop the truck released an aerosolized cloud of anthrax spores that were now wafting through the Dome’s air circulating system.  Two days later, people presented at local hospital emergency departments with nasal congestion and fever. The illness was initially diagnosed as influenza. But in succeeding days, more and more people became ill. Then deaths began to be reported. Finally, 5 days after the exposure occurred, a hospital laboratory identified anthrax as the cause of the outbreak, and antibiotic treatment was begun in those who had been exposed. Even so, of the 80 000 people estimated to have been at the game, 4000 died . (4)

No holding back now. Immigrants entering the country were isolated for the period of gestation of important diseases. Domestic pressure for further attacks was intense. Bumper stickers told the story: "Kill the germs before they kill us"; "Don't hesitate to retaliate," and "Coalitions are for cowards." A conventional but precise military attack led by the US, with heavy support from the UK and Russia was directed against infrastructure possibly associated with biological weapon production and all facilities that might be used to produce plutonium. The Taliban was toppled by force and national elections were held.

The terrorists went further underground. The quiet was unnerving. The other shoe hadn't yet dropped and paranoia prevailed.

Internet was the medium that the terrorists chose to make the announcement of their nuclear threat. Getting attention was important to terrorists; in the past television and newspapers were the media of choice. Now with instant global access possible, the terrorists broadcast their intent to detonate a nuclear weapon in an unknown location using two hundred of the most populated listserves. The terrorists got their publicity without scrutiny, without any authentication. Finally, international terrorism was perceived by the West as a ghastly theater, a power play on a world stage, demonstrating to the billions of largely uncommitted Muslims that the West, for all its Coca Cola and McDonalds, IMF, and military prowess, was no match for Islam in its pure form. Result: there were significant attempts to impose control over access to the Internet and media by groups with messages of hate.

When a terrorist warning appeared on the Internet, authorities asked: is the threat credible? Everybody had an opinion, but if anybody had facts, they couldn't be distinguished from those that were just guessing. And once the terrorists identified the target city, the mass exodus began. Copycats found it easy to publish in this way, as well. It was a mess, but the outcome was that the threat of nuclear terrorism was now more tangible than it had been.(5) Furthermore, control over other media content now was seen as desirable, not only to deny a propaganda platform to terrorists but also to limit access to information that might make their actions more effective. Mechanisms for authenticating news stories in the media were created.

The Office of Homeland Security created in response to September 11th had a special problem. They studied the threat and prepared to meet it with defensive strategies, but they soon recognized that the threat they studied was the last one, not the next one. So the Office form a "futurist skunk works" which had the job of postulating the next threat- that is inventing terrorist strategies. Of course this work was very secret since the Office didn't want to give the enemy any good ideas. But looking ahead gave the Office needed lead-time.

With the continuing terrorist attacks, mounting frustration, public disquiet, and very few clear victories, the US threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons to clean out the caves of Afghanistan once and for all.

This series of threats and the ensuing panics led the UN Security Council to enact resolutions to require the destruction of existing stockpiles of nuclear weapons supplies, and chemical and biological weapons, with adequate mandatory international inspection and verification.

Spying technology was a growth industry. Nanotech was used to make radio transmitters no bigger than a grain of sand; cameras no bigger than a pinhead. Banks of super computers with capacity for 20 million billion calculations per second were used to search the data bases generated by this new mass of audio and video machinery to find certain faces and listen for certain key words in any language and code. The terrorist needle in the haystack of babble was the target. Freedom suffered. Cyber-terrorism was a universal threat. People were careful about what they said, about protecting their identity. But the system caught criminals, found plots, and achieved the 21st century version of a technology- induced peace.

Because of the possibility of cyber- attacks, there was great effort in richer countries to build resilience and redundancies into the communications, energy, and command and control infrastructure to avoid possible catastrophic disruptions from info-terrorism. This spending not only improved anti terrorism defenses, but also helped avoid economic recession.

The war against terrorism merged with the war against drugs.  The argument was straightforward: the opium fields produce the income that funds our enemies, so why not attack that source of funds. This strategy, it was argued, has been used since the Romans salted the fields of Carthage. Agent Orange (remember its use in Viet Nam) was placed into use once again to wipe out the poppy fields. Those who argued against this strategy pointed out the long-term ecosystem and human health repercussions of such an action, along with the secondary economic and political ramifications that would last for generations. Counter argument: “When they pushed drugs, they didn’t worry about human health repercussions.”

Ten years later, the “good guys” are still searching for criminals. The electronic infrastructure built for the search for terrorists is being used in the broadened fight against international crime. The war against terrorism and drugs has merged with the war against crime, since all reinforce one another. A half a dozen countries are being governed as UN protectorates. The public says, “It’s the price we have to pay for stability.”  It was a long war.

Author: Ted Gordon
Thanks to Paul Werbos, Peter Rzeszotarski, Zuheir Al Fagih and others for suggestion about the merger of terrorism with drugs wars.
September 28, 2001



Scenario 2. COUNTER MINDSET: The Intellectual arms race to 2005

As more people believed like the Political Islamisists that the tide of history had to be turned or else Islam would perish from the earth due to the overwhelming momentum of Western cultural hegemony, the stage was increasingly prepared for large-scale terrorist acts.

Political Islamisists believed they ended the godless Soviet empire and communism in Afghanistan, not the spending race with the US, not the growing human rights movements, not the information revolution, but the USSR was defeated because the Islamisists were on the right side of history.

Fresh from this victory, they turned their sights on secular Western capitalism, which they saw as reducing everything to a commodity, reinforcing individualism and greed, and arrogantly running financial and political rules of the world to American's benefit. They believe that communism had its chance, capitalism is ruining the world now, and so it is Islam's turn now to set the world right.

Earlier "terrorist international" training bases gave birth to the growing networks of terrorism and together the growing Islamic extremists and their sympathizers formed the al Qaeda and other networks sworn to destroy the defilers of the sacred. Depressed youth in Upper Egypt, the Sudan, Yemen, Somalia and other areas that felt they had no future were fertile recruiting grounds. Leaders such as bin Laden and the al Qaedas of the world saw themselves as having the ability and moral responsibility to wage war on the world.

The leaders of the "International Community" realized that the real enemy was NOT simply small groups of fanatics, but a mindset held by both the direct supporters of the Political Islamisists and the millions of sympathizers from Mauritania to Indonesia.  Without addressing this, the International Community believed, terrorism would continue even if the entire al Qaeda network was destroyed. The response strategy and policies following the September 11th attacks slowly but surely began to focus on countering this mind set.

President Bush began this approach by going to the Islamic Center in Washington, D.C. on 17 September to make it clear that Islam is not the enemy of the International Community. This center is a unique "embassy of the Islamic World to America" that has never before been recognized by American diplomacy.  The President read from the Koran about evil behavior that related to the terrorists. The next step was his  recognition of the eventual independent Palestinian State. He also began an internal review of US relations with all Islamic countries.

Several leaders in the International Community recommended that the US agree that when bin Laden and others in al Qaeda were captured, they be tried in the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity, rather than tried in the US for crimes against the US. It seemed fitting that the first case at the ICC who be against those who produced the terrorist act that killed more civilians from more countries that any act in history. Some argued that using the ICC instead of a US court would help diffuse the Islam vs the West goal of bin Laden. Others said that giving bin Laden and his follows a world stage at the ICC to preach their hatred would incite addition networks of terrorist martyrs. They preferred that he be killed, as termed out to be the case in the still mysterious suicide bombing.

In parallel the military forces of the International Coalition destroyed enough of the Taliban regime that the UN Trusteeship Council was authorized by the General Assembly to administer Afghanistan's transition to a new government.  The Security Council supported UN Peacekeeping and Policing Forces to support the Trusteeship Council's work.  This helped defuse the Islam vs the West mentality and allied US fears of a long-term occupation.

Nevertheless, other Political Islamisists and their supporters continue their struggle.  Information warfare may have prevented a world war, but was not conducted intelligently enough to fully counter the terrorists' mindset.  Innovators in Silicon Valley began to talk about the "Big-e" or the "enlightenment application."  Since there were too many potential terrorist tactics to destroy a human quality of life, an intellectual arms race would have to be waged, but this one to make the opponent more enlightened, less crazy, and increasingly curious about alternative views of life. Cognitive science had leaned much about what makes one curious rather than fatalistic. Software designers folded this into television, radio, software, magazine, music, and other forms of influence on the human mind. Over the past several years since "11Sept01", the principles of self-organization guided some of the best and the brightest into action that may well have helped keep to world more stable.

A number of other policies proposed by participants in the Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University were considered and implemented, including:

1) An early warning system at the UN Secretariat that was transparent to the media and NGOs and could deploy rapid media systems to make emerging situations known to the world in order to build public pressure for early or preventative responses

2) Shared intelligence among security organizations

3) State-of-the-art intelligence technology was made available to the public in areas of potential problems, so that they can show the world what is happening

4) More effective sanctions that target just the criminals and not citizens

5) New counter money laundering strategies were established that included information traps that prioritized individuals by the amount of money they laundered, froze assets, identified where the criminal is and assessed local authorities' ability to make the arrest, identified the best country in which to prosecute a particular terrorist, and determined the readiness of local courts to move immediately.  When everything was ready, an intergovernment money laundering authority executed all the orders at the same time that apprehended the criminal, froze the assets and access, and opened the court case. This also became an effective anti-corruption and anti-organized crime strategy.

6) Global dialogues that have been maintained over years since 11Sept01 on issues that inflamed terrorists and the results have been liked to school curriculum changes

7) A "Global Partnership for Development" that gave reason for people not to be sympathetic with terrorists.  (One example in Egypt was Sharouk that connected rural village participatory processes for development priorities and strategies to financial allocations from government ministries in Cairo.)  Some funds from the new counter money laundering strategy were used to help support these development efforts.

Leading governments in the International Coalition did act as if they understood that the battle to change the terrorist mind set was the target of information warfare (IW).  Unfortunately too many in the chain of command still thought that IW was simply computer viruses and knocking out communication systems.  It was like saying that World War II was about rifles.  IW to counter perception alters information flows to the perceiver - something ben Laden understood very well.

It would be impossible to explain how governments, the private sector, Silicon Valley software innovators, media, NGOs, groups, and individuals worked and are still working to counter the extremists Political Islamisists's mind sets, but imagine... Imagine the information flows (advertising, government statements, news papers, Sufi rumors, NGO newsletters, Internet chat rooms, television, radio, conferences, sermons in Mosques, magazines) that linked and reinforced the perceptions of those who sympathized with terrorist objectives in 2001. Now imagine how they were used to reinforce the idea that this was a war against terrorism and the restoration of the right and proper image of Islam, and not a war between Islam and the West.

The international community showed that social evolution was more inclusive of different religions and philosophies than the Political Islamisists believed. The Islamisists, their supporters, and they sympathizers countered with similar means to promote the belief that the world was moving toward Western cultural hegemony and did not accept Islam.  Some organized crime networks collaborated with terrorist networks in the support of their information warfare.

Since nuclear materials, small arms, and biological materials were smuggled by organized crime for some terrorists networks, the world is still uncertain about the degree of threat today.  Before the Taliban was destroyed by the International Coalition, the majority of heroin traffic in their region was under the Taliban drug cartel control. What's the relationship between organized crime and terrorism today? What biological, chemical, and nuclear capabilities exist in terrorist networks and available via transnational crime?

Collectively, organized crime could gross $2,250 billion this year (2005) with $1 trillion to reinvest into the future of crime, which includes services to terrorists, increased manipulation or purchase of governments, and conducing information warfare to the highest bidder.  With such large amounts of profits, they could be buying the computer talent to skim the some of the $2 trillion that goes through Internet per day to get even more money to buy the future.  Since elections are run on software, some have speculated that organized crime bought the computer talent that went through the cyber back-door that changed some election results.  What's it worth to buy an election or enough government officials to "own" a country?

The intellectual arms race to counter the terrorist's mind set and all the systems that support them is fully engaged today and may well be having an additional impact on both government corruption and organized crime. As a result then the deaths 11 September 2001 will not have been in vain.

Author: Jerome C. Glenn,
Director Millennium Project
American Council for the United Nations University
October 8, 2001

Many of the policies are from 2001 State of the Future, The Millennium Project, American Council for the United Nations University, August 2001.



Scenario 3. ROOT CAUSES

After the WTC, the Pentagon, and the State Department attacks, the USA -adhering to conventional strategic criteria- leads an ill-fated world war against terrorism. The final result is a chain of strong regional and local reactions. This leads the USA to re-formulate its security and defense strategy as a first step and, at a later stage and upon realizing that this strategy is not widely accepted, the USA proposes a global strategy previously agreed upon with other main actors.

NGO´s with a global, interinstitutional and interdisciplinary vision begin to systematically study the terrorist threat and to propose policies agreed upon by different parties and with different perspectives. A European initiative allows for the implementation of a common strategy for NATO, the European Union and Russia. This common strategy is used as a base for later agreements with China, India, Japan and other regional organizations with a view to offering a global response.

his strategy is based on the value of human life and it is not limited to security considerations. It includes minimal standards of health, education, services and housing within the global strategy.(6) The policies are regionally agreed upon but they are implemented on a nation state basis.

International financial institutions start developing a strong self-criticism regarding their own general policies towards countries with very different present and potential development. They propose plans to be jointly implemented with the private sector and the civil society. Both meta-strategies have an immediate success in the replacement of the charitable institutions under which terrorist organizations are concealing their terrorist actions in the most critical regions of the world.

World economy which after the WTC attack had begun a deep recession, undergoes big changes. Corporations realize that social and political demands should be taken into account, and that, in the light of the heavy losses suffered at the WTC attack, they should have emergency plans for a prompt replacement of their top executives. Social responsibility of corporations in the whole cycle of their products or services is emphasized.

Corporations link their own image to their participation in community programs and realize that they have to keep a strict supervision over their personnel, although avoiding intrusions into their privacy or their liberties.

After a short period of expansion and association with other social radical movements terrorism starts to lose ground. A strong emphasis is placed on education in order to reduce inequality in access to work opportunities and to attain an acceptable standard of living on a global basis. A powerful global education campaign based on solidarity and the predominance of human life has started to isolate radical elements

Two new features acquire importance at this point: a) an agreement on the embargoing of global multimedia live information on terrorist acts, showing only some selected pieces of information through their usual channels and b) a more suitable international coordination scheme for intelligence and security organizations in their struggle against terrorism, together with the establishment of international courts and a common legislation aimed at overcoming national weaknesses and eliminating sanctuaries.

In major Islamic countries participative democratic forms are the instrument of secularization of political power. These countries, under a new generation leadership and without losing sight of the strong social character of their religion, are now starting to redirect their focus towards economic development.

After the weakening of the relationship between science and defense, an extraordinary effort in scientific research in the fields of genetics, biotechnology, and nanotechnology among others is now being jointly carried out by research centers all over the world. Technological innovation, which used to be held exclusively by developed countries is now to be shared by many different countries in order to achieve integrated development.

Author: Miguel Angel Gutierrez
Buenos Aires, Argentina
September 28, 2001



Scenario 4. SOCRATIC JUSTICE

In the wake of September 11, 2001 there were calls for retribution and vengeance. US military forces were deployed around the world and massive attacks seemed imminent. Secretary of State Colin Powel wisely called for time to build a coalition and for deliberate and precise response rather than all out attack. The Council of the Islamic States added their weight against the terror attacks declaring its non-Islamic nature from any conceivable point of view and supporting vigorous and military measures for finding the terrorists. The Council took its right and most welcome place at the table of the world civilizations for a resolution for a better future for all.(7)

The precise military response was a coordinated series of Ranger and Special Forces raids in which suspected terrorists in Afghanistan, Iran, and several other countries were captured. Casualties were minimal.

But what was to be done with the captured suspects? As a first step, the US ratified the International Criminal Court about which it had been ambivalent. The US took the position, with justification and some success, of defender of justice on a global scale and acted for “liberty and justice for all” for the coalition and in accordance with its traditions. It took the captured suspects to international court.

This was a sharp departure from President Bush’s first months of unilateralism, during which the US abrogated several international treaties, causing deep anger, even among the USA’s closest allies. Only the United Nations was seen as having a big enough tent to bring all countries to a Summit on Terrorism, where all countries - including many sympathetic Muslim countries, shaped a worldwide strategy to combat terrorists. One interesting precursor to this meeting was a UN-sponsored project on “Peace and Conflicts” in which scenarios from the perspective of extremists as well as those under attack were prepared.

The US also paid its dues to the UN with the rationale that UN peacekeeping and court activities had become a matter of national security. President G. W. Bush gave a speech that contained the phrase, “guns belong to the last century.” Some of the money allocated to the military buildup was used to help avert a human catastrophe in Afghanistan brought on by famine. This aid, unexpected by most, distrusted by some, but welcomed by many, is thought to have resulted in the fall of the Taliban government. This time of cooperation in the UN was also used to create a set of rules of storage, control, and displacement of nuclear, chemical, and biological stocks; systems of effective inspection and monitoring were also created in parallel. The UN advised that all countries should destroy all stockpiles of smallpox virus.(8)

Coordination and cooperation among nations and agencies regarding information, early warning, apprehension, and punishment of terrorists, was expanded- with leadership by the UN Security Council.  With the growth of an international system of criminal justice (the tribunals for Rwanda and former Yugoslavia were models) nations and international police organizations had a legitimate avenue with which to pursue criminals and particularly terrorists that perpetrated cross border crimes. The cases against them could be displayed in a court of international law. The court was designed to conduct fair trials of persons responsible for serious violations of international humanitarian law, to render justice to victims of the crimes in question while helping prevent perpetration of similar atrocities in future.

The problem with the Court and the notion of a world justice system was national sovereignty. What right did a world body, or an injured country have, to enter another country and capture suspected criminals? The answer came slowly. When massive injury had been done that was abhorrent to most nations of the world, as was the September 11th catastrophe, the right to hunt the suspected criminals was granted by the court to the injured party and their allies and designates.

Those nations that used the system often faced criticism internally (was extradition to international jurisdiction constitutional or not?). There were arguments about whether the trials were influenced politically, and there were charges of corruption and favoritism. There was a general feeling that the new courts had made a new oasis for lawyers. But with all of the criticism, the court was something new in the world and it created an environment for transparent justice. Those accused had their day in court; those that were found guilty were punished.

Public education programs that promote respect for diversity and equal rights were created; curricula specializing in moral decision-making were established in most countries of the world. This was undertaken to create an alternative to the Madrassahs, particularly, the schools teaching fanaticism in South Asia, and Egypt. Without this step, the "dragons' teeth" would have been sowed continuously. Collaboration among the various inter-religious dialogues was fostered to increase the contributions of religion, such as getting religious leaders to intervene when people are going to war in the name of religion, and say this is NOT what religion teaches, and/or conduct inter-religious studies to find the common moral values and attitudes acceptable to all cultures. Through massive “social marketing” programs, by moderate Islamic voices were encouraged to speak up. The messages were different in countries like India, compared with Pakistan (or even with Egypt), depending on the style of governance that country enjoyed. In parallel, intensive programs of dialog between Islamic  mullahs and interpreters of the Koran (in the many different schools of thought) with those representing modernity (whether Christian or not).  Indeed, even orthodox Jewish and traditional Hindu scholars were included in the program. Christian fanatics were included as well. This step was seen as necessary to avoid re-filling of the public mind with fanatical ideas, goals, targets, which are only a step away from terrorist action.

At first, the US was accused of codling, of evading its responsibilities, but in the clearer light of history, the wisdom of its actions are clear.  The action was later seen as inspired. It avoided starting a global war of Islam vs. the West, resulted in economic and social stability, reduction in politically based terrorism, and diminished drug traffic and slavery. Some historians even the formation of the coalition and the establishment of a firm system of international justice as a turning point in history, bringing together old foes and new allies in common accord.

Author: Ted Gordon
With contributions from Hazel Henderson, from her article "Preventing War and Global Recession", (c) Christian Science Monitor, 2001.
Suggestion about the Madrassahs, speaking up of moderates, and dialog among religious sects were from: J. G. Krishnayya.
Also, some of the policies in this scenario are from Glenn and Gordon, 2001 State of the Future, July 2001.

September 28, 2001



Scenario 5. THE WILD WEST

President Bush evoked the Wild West, and the Wanted – Dead or Alive image, indeed, even calling for a campaign against the terrorists.

The inevitable military strikes led to endless escalation in a war that apparently the US won, but over time this sped up the process of decline, with terror meeting terror. New sorts of weapons were involved in the response/ counter-response. Anti-terrorist measures were employed (e.g. US marshals on all airline flights) but the US prepared for the last, not the next, act of terrorism.

There had been some hope at the beginning. Secretary of State Colin Powell and others understood that surgical strikes (rather than broad, classical warfare) as well as recognizing the many Islam’s and the many Afghanistan’s were crucial for strategy and success. Bush entering a mosque, without shoes, and publicly stating that this is a war against terrorists and not Muslims were excellent steps forward. In addition, protection of minorities in the USA against direct violence was laudable. Even the title of the American Infinite Justice operation indicated that the President was getting some good advice.

But the war escalated, nevertheless. The escalation involved biological, chemical, and radioactive weapons. The US defense was high tech, including for example, biochips for the early detection of biological agents, rapid deployment gas masks, massively deployed cameras for face recognition, etc. A system of isolation hospitals was created in anticipation of the possibility of large-scale epidemics. The CIA got back into business, and continued to make enemies everywhere. From their side, the terrorism movement continued to grow, and US actions- and inactions- incited further recruitment and created alliances that that fanned the flames.

It was surprising to see the increasing population of Muslims in the US armed forces, especially the Marines  (through conversion and demographic growth rates).(9) Once begun, there was no end in sight. Bush stated the assassination clause does not apply to Bin Ladin and others since the USA is acting in self-defense.

There was no real change to the world; some nations already poor were beaten. But there were no fundamental changes in international politics or international capital. OECD states became stronger militarily, while individuals become more fearful, anxiety prone.

Depressions settled over the world, both economic and psychological.  The depression led to anti-globalization revolts throughout the world.

In the end there was a slow but inevitable movement toward global fascism – the soft hegemony of the consumption culture of McDonalds’s with hard side of Stealth bombers.

Author: Sohail Inayatullah
With minor additions by Ted Gordon
September 24, 2001



Scenario 6. THE PEACEFUL COWBOY

After some moves in the direction of widespread military action, the US backs into a position of cooperation with others to deal with terrorism in a more contained, targeted way, although a great deal of wild west posturing continues.

There are three interconnected parts:

1.  Protecting against terrorist action within the US borders.  This starts with air transport issues.  The US copies much of the more effective approach and technology of other countries, including government staffing of airport security, investment in high tech search and recognition equipment and use of intelligence to guard against action by known terrorists.  It eventually carries over to other areas, such as chemical and biological warfare.  This proves to be enormously expensive and negates income tax reduction as well as using much of the surplus that had been gained in recent years.  However the public accepts it, for the most part, out of fear and also because it proves to boost the overall economy.

2.  Enhanced intelligence gathering.  Once the cooperation between nations on intelligence work gets out of the political spotlight, the various organizations cooperate well enough to greatly improve the ability to pinpoint organizations, their members, their plans, and most importantly the movement of money.  Cooperation is motivated mainly by the fear of being blamed for a disaster when a more cooperative stance might have led to knowledge that would have averted it.

3.  Economic action.  With some (not extreme) changes in the US law and cooperation from several initially reluctant European and Middle Easter nations, the combined international effort is able to greatly reduce the ability of terrorists groups to finance their operations.  The US and other nations also support selected regimes in other countries with a view both to antiterrorism and to helping them survive and to establish policies and practices that allow them to compete in the global market.  (I.e. less corruption).

Although some laws are changed to grant more powers to law enforcement and intelligence operatives, civil liberties watchdog groups prevent this from becoming more than an inconvenience to Americans. Sociological and psychological analysis of known terrorists were used to create profiles; interviews were conducted at critical places such as points of entry, immigration applicants, airports, applicants for pilot’s licenses, etc. to find those who fit the profiles. Civil libertarians complained but the program found a few potential terrorists.

After a decade or so these systems are working pretty well, despite a lot of political wrangling and finger pointing that goes on between terrorists acts and during elections.  There are no more US incidents of the magnitude of the September 11, 2001 acts, though the US does continue to suffer smaller attacks (about the same as the UK has faced for several decades).

Eventually protection against terrorism becomes almost a habit.   At times the population becomes complacent until they are rudely awakened by the action of new groups using some new methods.  Then the agencies involved become careful again for a while.  All in all, people muddle through without great disaster.

There also begins to be some change in the cultural clashes that helped develop religious extremism.  There is more religious tolerance, including the elimination of forced secularism.  At the same time, more and more people have been enticed into the world economy and strive for success.  At the end of the period, the struggle is less between fanatics and the forces of secularism and more between the haves and the have-nots.  This involves much less large-scale violence, though it does involve suffering on the part of the poor and loss of freedom on the part of the rich.  After 35 years, most of the energy that had been directed toward anti-terrorism is focused on this problem.

Principal author: Anne Barton
September 22, 2001
Suggestion about sociological and psychological analyses is from J. G. Krishnayya.



Scenario 7. THE NEXT YEAR

To Xmas 2001

The US and GB (as a spearhead for NATO and the EU) continue to build a grand coalition against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The objective of combating general terrorism is more neglected as the US realizes they have for years been the key funders of the IRA Terror campaign which Tony Blair reminds George Bush frequently also cost thousands of lives but over 30 years. The US promise action on all International terrorism, irrespective of resources. Organized crime in the US makes a tacit deal with the administration to help where it can.

The retaliation begins. There is massive bombing of desolate regions in the hope that by annihilating the haystack the needle will get hit, Hawks push for use of tactical nukes but that is too dangerous a precedent. But it does not work and so with the aid of the Northern Alliance (which is boosted by troops from the ex-Russian Republics bordering) an internally inspired invasion of the Taliban areas of Afghanistan begins by mid-October through to November. The Taliban- held UN Aid workers are executed in retaliation, once it is realized that they hold no bargaining power. This provides additional moral support for the military strikes.

Xmas 2001

By Christmas the people of Afghanistan are "free" but the fate of Bin Laden is still unclear. A last desperate act of terrorism somewhere in the world against a US target outside the US causing more symbolic damage than loss of life suggests he survived the first military onslaught. This is either in France or in some African country.

The political fall out

As Arafat and Israel continue to feud, it becomes clearer that the Middle East situation, which was created in 1948, is the root cause of the Moslem fundamentalist disaffection. Whereas Arabs themselves are factional and tribal and local regional conflicts continue, they only spill over into the West when the flashpoint is Western oriented. Two peoples of opposite view and equally deep religious convictions want one and the same thing, which cannot be subdivided. The global alliance wants the protagonists to think about sharing the already limited regional resources, but this causes greater unrest and violence. Israel retrenches to what it has left from the 6-day war and refuses to negotiate further. This strains the critical element of the global alliance - the moderate Middle East States. But by then oil is well below $20 a barrel and the US considers the unthinkable - withdraw support for Israel unless they reduce their military severity. After all, the vast majority of Americans in the street who will willingly die to do his duty for his country sees no reason to die for the promotion of the Jewish faith half way around the world.

Afghanistan

Casualties in Afghanistan mount. About 50,000 locals perish one way or another, mainly - the media will be told - women and children – but the Western forces have only light casualties as resistance is dogged but low level. The second major cause of casualties is the command chain and identification errors between allies. The Northern Alliance is reinforced and they do the core of the groundwork to control the territory and win
popular acclaim. By the time the snows melt, the new "democratic" regime in Afghanistan has already show that it is far from united and the allies have to start a massive and prolonged human aid campaign, organized via UN. This hearts and minds and stomach approach wins more friends. Bin Laden is apparently assassinated, it is said by one of his own but probably by alliance special forces. The refugees that escaped to Pakistan and Iran slowly return easing local pressures with India and the Kashmir question again takes top spot on the regional agenda.

World Tensions?

The US considers their successes and reflects on the opportunity to take out Saddam Hussein, with Iranian help. King Abdullah of Jordan emerges as a leader of global stature, with leanings towards British style diplomacy, He is capable of speaking for the Arab people as a whole, but fails to unite them sufficiently to threaten Israel. One bright spot is that over the past year and in this context, China and Taiwan articulate their differences and learn to live with each other. Trade and relations improve and joint maneuvers are held to better co-ordinate armed forces co-ordination in the region. China uses Taiwan's technology to develop its own society while still suppressing democracy, which does not bother Taiwan. Nevil Shute's "On the Beach" scenario is consigned to Hollywood forever.

Meanwhile back in the West, international tourism is down still but travel is slowly rebuilding. Airlines are beginning to be more profitable and the Dow, which broke through 10,000 after Christmas is again hitting 11,000 by May. IT and telecomm stocks are doing well as usage increased in the 11 Sept. aftermath, and the reality that compared to long distance air-travel it is very cheap, even if not 100% as effective.

The one problem that is not impacted is the one of terrorism itself. In N. Ireland, Mexico, the Basque lands and in many regions of Africa, terrorism is still rife. However, what has changed is the nature of their support. There is much less state sponsored terrorism - where one country supports a group in another country with a "just cause" against another group. Countries think more carefully and develop more ethical foreign policies. Weapon sales are controlled more tightly and internal agreements are made which also impact sales of advanced technologies, which may be used to develop weapons. Only France does not sign up to the UN sponsored agreement, but is forced to do so in order to maintain its Security Council status.

The US fundamentally re-examines its foreign policy and introduces ethical foresight and analysis into its decision- making. Before acting as lone global policeman, it realizes that acting as a global police force is more effective and brings longer- term security benefits. Its foreign aid policy becomes less political and more humanitarian.

After the Military!

On 11th Sep 2002 the UN hold a special session in NY with the new global alliance against terrorism offering a program of threat reduction vs. humanitarian and technical assistance. Kofi Annan speaks of a new world order and the true end of the cold war, where enemies over generations - East and West, Arab and non Arab, Maoists and Taoists co-operate and share intelligence which ensures their own peoples greater liberty, freedom and security.
 

Author: Mike Rogers
September 24, 2001



Scenario 8. FORTRESS USA/OECD

Australia had already chosen this route, which is an isolationist closing of borders, basically a prison lock down, especially to newcomers (who desire to enter the Fantasy Island of the Virtual West- Australia- escaping sanctions and feudal systems). The costs of this lock down to rich countries will be very high given globalized world capitalism.

The Fortress scenario leads to general impoverishment and the loss of innovation that accompanies immigration.  In the short run, it provides the appearance of security, but in the longer run, poverty results. In addition, democracies become a sham with real power devolving to the right wing that becomes aligned with the military/police complex.  Increasing airport security is a must but without root issues being resolved, terror finds other vehicles of expression, even in this world. After all, fortresses are remembered, in history, for being overrun, not for successful defense against "others."

The response to US/OECD closing its borders from the Islamic world becomes Fortress Islam, closing civilizational doors, becoming even more feudal and mullahist. Countries and individuals are forced to choose: are you with us or against us, denying the multiplicity of selves that we could have become. Saudi Arabia and Jordan, the last US/OECD bastions in the Arab world fall to internal pressures. The economy – primarily oil – remains a link between the two Fortresses. The Fortresses need each other one to sell the other to buy, but other associations continue to drift away. It is an uneasy accommodation.

Sohail Inayatullah
September 24, 2001
With suggestions from Michael Marien



Scenario 9. ESTABLISHING A GLOBAL CIVIC ETHIC
Written looking back from 2005

After the attack and the collective gasp from all of us – the ordinary people realized that this had to stop.  And now and peacefully if possible.  We already had become concerned about our politicians and thinkers.  The former wanted to use their clubs to protect their income streams and the latter to beat us around our heads with their scenarios – when what we needed was expertise in how to implement them.

Right up front WFSF tossed out the distinction between vigilante and rule of law as too ‘either or’.  There were other options and no one was saying.  The politicians wanted their own version of the former and the thinkers their own version of the latter.  By now The World Futures Study Federation (WFSF) members were arguing strongly that we could get beyond the Nation-State, knee jerk responses and even representative democracy.

 The key international NGO’s got together through a call by WFSF, and pushed within the respective countries for a collective decision about what to do.  And in this way we in the NGO movement were able to get beyond the Nation-State and its appendages such as the UN (which remains strangely quiet in this regard).  The incoming council (called GNGOC – Global NGO Council, modeled on the Commonwealth foundation) of NGOs allowed autonomous civic organizations to have their say.  The outcome was that in the opinion of the council it was a lack of global civic ethic that was a key impediment to lasting peace and global security.

The council started by acknowledging the lack of progress toward heeding the call for a global ethic from the UN, from the Millennium Project, and from all the global democracy movements.  Even the G8 called for a planetary ethic.  In fact by this time many NGO’s collectively saw the need for such an ethic and sought to implement it.  Such an ethic was a leap that happened in late 2001.  After months of discussion the realization emerged that the war against terrorism simply had to be reframed beyond the archaic good vs. evil framework- and words like ‘world-wide war - WWW’ (50 years ago) and ‘crusade’ (900 years ago) had to be recast.

Council deliberations were assisted by the WFSF anti terrorist scenarios. Joint working groups were set up to implement the preferred scenarios.  These working groups had a three month remit to keep a ‘can be implemented’/ praxis perspective on their deliberations.  Further some of the working groups members tasked their classes with the scenarios.  WFSF then through its connection to the UNESCO, OECD, corporate sponsorship and individual member lobbies, presented the results to the US, UN, European and other nations and to relevant Christian and Islamic Federations.  Outcomes were then themed into the next global conference.

In short we had to have new ways of speaking and acting.  These new ways had to be social inventions that wouldn’t get lost in the eternal reactive legalistic wrangling of the War Crimes Tribunal or that wouldn’t only see action as vigilante or world order.  New ways, even new words were developed, so we could embrace fresh understandings of what was happening.  In this way we could prevent and argue against the typical middle aged male capitalist response of I’ve got a bigger club than yours and unless you give it to me I will bash you with mine. Now that’s what I call active peacemaking?

Aspects of how futures oriented active peace making unfolded:

1.      The thinkers helped by developing thought pieces into the different scenarios into decision impact matrixes and ultimately into detailed action plans.

2.      The Global NGO council (GNGOC) in conjunction with UNESCO implemented a global ethics development model developed in Australia by the Civic Integrity Development Association.  This system facilitated progressive participation by millions of people worldwide.

3.      The introduction, through the GNGOC of this Global Civic Ethic, progressively from early 2002.  An ethic of participatory care and concern for others and a new global constitutional process initially piloted in Australia and then the Pacific Rim and then Asia by 12-02.  The development of the Ethic was based on experiential citizen education and participation that linked action and thought. The Ethic did not shy away from recognizing that people had to take difficult decisions in relation to terrorism, population and green issues

4.      We recognized the importance of Social Innovation along side Technological Innovation in order to support and sustain diversity.  This led to transnational innovation systems being developed and implemented by late 2003.  Modeled on the European system and especially the French ethnotechnology model.

5.      The GNOC, UN and G8 combined forces to undertake a serious restructure of the World Trade System to set in concrete a participatory  “small is possible” strategy

6.      This realization resulted in the development of the World Public Service which now four years after start up is 1000 strong) starting out as a world volunteer corps.  The Corps comprises expertise (academic, pragmatic and experiential) volunteers from all walks of life.  Volunteers take on this ethical management task world wide with integrity and transparency and where necessary take the tough decisions.  Positive outcomes were achieved in: mediation in the Arab Israeli conflict, developing ethnoeducational systems in East Timor, and working on deep conflict resolution as part of the War Crimes Tribunals in Africa and Europe.

Appropriate Response Technology

The above were wrapped in the following Appropriate Response Technology through a series of joint WFSF/GNGOC working groups.  These working groups then sought resourcing from Aid agencies, endowment funds and the UN itself, for the implementation of selected scenarios through broad based experiential learning strategies.   [An outline proposal is available from the author for linking WFSF interest groups/individuals with scenarios, roles and activist strategies and actions]

Appropriate Response Technology identified conflict resolution and the above points as crucial in the fight against terrorism and recommended giving the combatants three chances.  It was based on the view that is if the collective global energy going into the fight against terrorism is conceptualized as 100 then the military option should be no more than 15 and only then as a last but definite, resort.

The recommendation, legislated and endorsed by the UN and the NGO Council, was that first combatants had to aver terrorism and agree to mediation. Second they had to take it seriously for an extended period and third they had to agree to implement the outcomes thereof and the above points.  All this was to be undertaken in no more than three months.  Failing this, sustained ongoing sanction action would follow. Such sanctions would be freezing of finances, requirement for citizen education and participation and ultimately as a last resort sustained and comprehensive military action.  Such military action is to be overseen by a global peace force generated by the GNGOC and a reconstructed UN.

Author: Paul Wildman pwildman@optushome.com.au
October 8, 2001



Scenario 10: COLONIALISM REBORN

The United States and some of its allies get deeply involved into the conflict in Afghanistan. After destroying the Taliban regime, internal conflicts between the Afghan ethnic groups cannot be solved without external military involvement, which causes local rioting and conflicts. Results of the past situation in Afghanistan and of the recent bombardment create a large-scale humanitarian disaster during the winter, which has an impact on the situation in other Muslim states and in the Western societies. bin Laden is either caught or killed after a long search. This creates enthusiasm in the US and unrest in the Muslim countries. For some, bin Laden becomes a new unifying martyr.  A new spectacular terrorist attack seems to have become less plausible due to the precaution measures.

As to avoid a slow escalation of the internal conflict in Afghanistan, the US attempts to mobilize the world opinion, and induces the UN to participate in nation building. Massive deliveries of assistance for Afghanistan are provided to the country not only in the form of food, but quick rebuilding of hospitals, others services, infrastructure, which help to improve dramatically standards of living in that country. IMF and more conventional forms of assistances are by-passed.

In the Middle East, the US is forced either to put pressure on both parties to find a compromise, or to accept complete failure of the peace process. This would mean an end to any expectations for the Palestinian state, with Israel completely re-taking control over Palestinian territories. In either event, this course of events is still regarded as relatively peaceful, without any dramatic events. Thus the West becomes further involved in the unstable region from Pakistan to the Middle East. Yet, no major escalation occurs.

An unexpected event dramatically changes the situation. (Any of several types of events are plausible: a mega-terrorist attack, assassination of a leader in the West or elsewhere, destabilization of a moderate Arab state, exploitation of the situation by the extremist forces in the Middle East, Western attack against another Arab state - Iraq (tolerable), Syria (intolerable) for other Muslim states, India exploiting the situation in Kashmir, Russia getting deeper involved in conflicts - Chechnya, Georgia.).

Such an event triggers a chain reaction in the entire region from the Middle East to Pakistan. The situation then becomes similar to the colonial wars of the 19th and 20th Centuries and limited and mixed (military-economic-political) yet permanent Western (Northern???) interventions become necessary. A long period of reshuffling of the political and security system follow.

Principal Author: Czeslaw Mesjasz
October 20, 2001



Scenario 11: CALL ON THE UN

The military operations that responded to the terrorist attacks on the US started with the declared aims of catching bin Laden "dead or alive" and breaking his terrorist network. The investigation that "followed the money" to map the criminal network and catch the criminals proved to be extremely complex and the speed of international financial markets made this task more difficult than anticipated.

There was some doubt about the real intent of the US. Was the "war to terrorism" a way to increase the US control for its own strategic interests? So, the big question was whose interests were at stake?

Taking the best view, ending terrorism in the world’s interest, the UN was asked to play a major role, a role that was much more important than had been seen before. It became clear that the US experience in Afghanistan would become similar to the USSR’s, but complicated by continued terrorism at home. The war economy pushed economic growth, but terrorism had a much more intense depressing effect.

This situation lasted for more than one year and induced some serious political changes both in different Islamic countries where extremists obtained greater influence (one of the original aims of the terrorists) and in the US too, where the war (and Bush) became unpopular. In many Western countries the pacifist and "anti-global" movement gained influence, and new leaders with new policies appeared. People became fed up with the consequences of war and started to think that the UN might be more useful in settling international disputes than direct interventionism had proven to be. The Bin Laden case, still unsolved, was taken over by the International Criminal Court.

Principal authors: Luca Rondini and Eleonora Masini
October 25, 2001



STRATEGIES FROM NYU STUDY

1. An Empire Stretched Too Thin (Quagmire)
 
2002 2005
US falls for "Bin Laden's trap:" 

The US invades Afghanistan and Iraq, bombing them back "beyond the Stone Age." The U.S. also does what Henry Kissinger warned against back in late 2001; creating too broad a coalition that saps its own spirit and focus. 

This provokes a radical-Muslim counter-movement. 

The result: War is Hell. US enters full-scale war. More terrorist attacks in the US devastate life, property and morale. 

Third World War - Islamic nations declare war on U.S. This is still going on in 2005. 

US efforts fail to have much effect. US keeps pushing on. Quagmire, Vietnam II. Long, drawn-out, endless military morass. Coalitions break down, Drain on economy. Attacks at home continue. No end in sight. Rogue states -- Syria, Libya, Saudi Arabia -- do not grant visas to their citizens.

War measures go into place: Term limits revoked. "Emperor Bush" is in the White House. Mayor Giuliani has his 4th term. 

The war's on ourselves. The government is spread thin. Businesses find it difficult to progress. Only businesses that sell necessities rise. Luxuries do not. Genetic engineering will disappear as an economic engine. 50% of the population works for military contractors or government-run companies. We are like France.

The Talking Heads' song, Life During Wartime, was prescient. "This ain't no party; this ain't no disco..." There is a constant Red Scare, focusing on different groups at different times. Rogue businesses are shut down. (And just try to get an airline ticket...) You need ID at all times in the U.S. There is little ethnic profiling, but lots of lifestyle profiling. People who live below 14th Street are definitely problematic...

People in U.S. respond by moving away from cities, to settle in rural (safer) areas. 

Some regions (Singapore, Boston-to-Washington) wall themselves off, and become (in effect) gated City-States. International travel in increasingly difficult, especially with the threat of biological warfare. When you enter a country, you aren't just asked about food or vegetables, but: "Are you bringing viruses into the country?" 

Having liquid assets is fundamental to success. 

2. International McCarthyism (Victory and Social Control)
 
2002 2005
The US enters full-scale war. New attacks on US by terrorists are foiled and lead to intensive criminal investigations. 

Much of the war is fought through corporate strength. Punishment occurs through global banking -- seizure of assets. Trial by association is common. If you are a government that harbors terrorists -- your assets are seized. Economic sanctions are brutal for states that harbor terrorists. 

The combination of allies, military might and corporate presence gives us capability we didn't imagine we had and the all-out effort prevails.

We destroy the village in order to save it. This is the path to social control. The nature of democracy has changed -- at home and abroad. Large institutions have gained legitimacy. Privacy is tougher to achieve. This is "the big government/big business official future." 

Paradoxically, although the victory belongs to the U.S., the net result is a new international police world: Nation-states and military groups become less important, and corporations and cities take the governance role away from them. 

This is partly because of the business-based response to refugee problems. Struggles ensue between nation-states and trans-global corps. Local government becomes much more territorial in what it governs. 

More strict regulations exist on immigration and emigration. Guilt by association plays a large part in who is defined as good and bad. 

Winners are any form of intelligent agencies. Technology, technology monitoring. Teleconferencing, data base development. Anything security related. Reactionary groups gain strength: "I told you so."

Losers are unaffiliated tech workers -- not working for the government or big contractors. "Pretty Good Privacy" is dead. 

Redefinition of civil rights. Common definition of privacy -- "If I'm doing nothing wrong I have nothing to hide."

Combined with "advertising unleashed" this is a future of great social control; a future that many find comfortable but that is increasingly binding. It is a future that no one has chosen; the world simply fell into it as a result of the war.

3. Black Market World (Global fragmentation)
 
2002 2005
Terrorism globalizes: The next wave of attacks occurs not in the U.S., but in other industrialized nations. 

Civil liberties in first world follows the English and Israeli model. Other countries see the war as an opportunity to attach strings to their alliance to the US. 

Money moves freely around the world. Economies are unstable but the stock market stays stable. 

Economic instability leads to shifting alliances. IMF and World Bank lose power, and pull out of many countries.

Global fragmentation. The world debates definition of terrorism as Irish and Tibetan militants alienate Britain and China. 

The U.S. ends up "going it alone." The result is a new Cold War, but a multi-sided one, with continually shifting alliances and an Islamic bloc. 

In the first world: Political gridlock and economic turbulence. 

In the third world: Increasing fluidity. Economy continues to depend on underground goods like hashish. 

Old institutions like NATO and IMF still exist, but have less power. They don't mature. 

Third world countries form their own coalition à la NATO and go to where the money is. 

Have's are tied up in the old system. Have not's have more freedom and shift alliances at will. 

Refugees move around locally. International travel is more difficult.

This is like the future Samuel Huntington foresaw in The Clash of Civilizations. The war takes place between civilizations with different identities. Lots of countries don't develop economically.

With fewer resources, the West/industrialized world has no choice but to build a wall around itself; the rest of the world takes its best bets where it can. 

Standard banking system and financial systems at war; the underground financial system gets stronger. 

4. Gloom and Boom (Nuclear Winter)
 
2002
2005
"Bin Laden's trap" is sprung. 

The US invades Afghanistan and Iraq, bombing them back "beyond the Stone Age." 

US attack provokes radical-Muslim counter-movement. Pakistan goes radical-Islamic; this leads to militant-Islamic use of nuclear weapons.

Nuclear winter: Everybody loses. Blind arrogance in Western Governments. Like The March of Folly.

The new Pakistan government sends nuclear bombs (through some means) into Israel, India, and into Russia from Chechnya. There are also organized terrorist attacks against nuclear power plants. A wave of Chernobyl-like explosions devastates the North.

US retaliates and wipes out Pakistan. But the world is sick in the North. Mass migrations take place south. People start moving underground. The southern hemisphere takes control. EBAY.NZ replaces the stock exchange. 

(The one silver lining of this future is that we will probably know if it's plausible months before the attacks actually happen, because it will take that long to get the weapons in place.) 

5. Blooming World (Surprise renaissance)
 
2002
2005
The war is easier than we thought. Terrorists are caught, contained and discredited, just like the militias after Oklahoma City. 

There is a kind of Renaissance under pressure: The US wins this new kind of war by reinventing itself as a new kind of society. We see humanistic shifts in civilian and military life within the U.S. 

One keystone of this is the Powell Doctrine. We are focused on solving one problem: to notch back the Al-Queida network. 

We win the war, but a limited war. At the same time, we repel terrorism by developing the kind of maturity in our institutions and culture that makes terrorism unpalatable to the rest of the world. Our transformations allowed us to prevail where old-style US attitudes would have lost.

"They were just a rabble." Life goes back to normal, as it did after Oklahoma City. 

(Except that history leaves us thinking differently.)

There is less dependence on oil. Many refugees settle here. Industrial systems are reshaped. Military technology rapidly changes civilian sphere. 

The UN is strengthened outside the US. Tribes override nations. It's a world of homelands. 

Political change -- We let Iran take over the radical elements. Jordan rises. Egypt rises. Syria rises. All become more democratic gradually. Eventually we go back into Iraq with a coalition and overturn Saddam, from a moral high ground. 

Slow evolution from business as usual to political stability. Nation-states weakened. U.N. strengthened. 

International tensions are dealt with on a case-by-case basis. "You can have your own internal problems and Civil Wars, but you can't take it across national borders." It's a global policing model where the global police feel free to administrate any cross-boundary mess. 

The U.S. wins, but is chastened. We got into a mess, and barely got out, and say "Never again." 

Colombia, Taiwan, and the Phillipines are seen as three trouble-spots that met their challenges and have now become strong nations. 

The U.S. endorses the Tom Friedman philosophy: "Smoking and non-smoking states." Terrorists gather in smoking states. But the economic damage of being a "smoking' state is evident, and these are marginalized. 

The UN is terrible at leading, but it turns out to be good at brokering. 

The world is not getting involved in Civil Wars. 

There is increasing empathy and understanding of root causes of terrorism and negative effects of globalization. 

There is investment in Telecom -- opportunities expand in media and communications. 

Underneath it, there is a continuing "Frankenstein" syndrome -- we civilianize military technology such as GPS and remote commnications, but the terrorists keep using new technologies to create new problems. 

A more Liberal New Deal-style spending-oriented government is voted into place in the U.S. the next election. Many nations rise economically along with the US, such as Taiwan, Phillipines and Latin America. 

We return to the intellectual divide between the "red" and "blue" states of 2000.



CONTRIBUTORS

Contributors include:

Anne Barton
Wendel Bell
Douglass Carmichael
Jerome C. Glenn
Jose Cordeiro
Zuheir Al Fagih
Ted Fuller
Miguel Angel Gutierrez
Hazel Henderson
Sohail Inayatullah
Peter Kennedy
Abbey Kidder
J. G. Krishnayya
Hal Linstone
Bruce Lloyd
Kamal Mahoud
Pentti Malaska
Michael Marien
Eleonora Masini
Czeslaw Mesjasz
Felix Nolte
Peter Rzeszotarski
Mike Rogers
Luca Rondini
Robert Smith
Paul Werbos
Paul Wildman
Rusong Wong

and many others whose comments and discussion served to stimulate the scenarios and analysis.



Endnotes:

1. Pavel Novacek, nov@aix.upol.cz, who leads the Central European node of the Millennium Project has developed such a plan--Global Partnership for Development; see Jerome Glenn and Theodore Gordon, 2001 State of the Future, July 2001.

2. Michael Marien, "Ten Key Questions on The War, The Costs, and Positive Outcomes", mmarien@syr.edu

3. News media carried both stories on 10/4/01 and The Times (of London); 2001 October 10, "NATO chief warns of 'poor man's nuclear bomb' risk."

4. This anthrax scenario is quoted in slightly modified form from: Scary Scenarios Spark Action at Bioterrorism Symposium. (Medical News & Perspectives) Charles Marwick 03/24/99 JAMA, The Journal of the American Medical Association, as reported in 2001 State of the Future, annotated bibliography of scenarios.

5. This paragraph verbatim from J. Glenn and T. Gordon, State of the Future at the Millennium, American Council for the United Nations University, July 2000.

6. Some 1.2 billion people worldwide struggle to survive on $1 day or less. 1.2 billion people lack access to safe drinking water and 2.9 billion have inadequate access to sanitation.  At least 150 million people are unemployed and 900 million are "underemployed"-contending with inadequate incomes despite long hours of backbreaking work….. For the sake of comparison, let's assume that the United States will spend $100 billion on the "war" in the next 12 months. What could we buy if we matched this $100 billion military expenditure dollar-for-dollar with spending on programs to alleviate human suffering? A report in 1998 by the United Nations Development Programme estimated the annual cost to achieve universal access to a number of basic social services in all developing countries: $9 billion would provide water and sanitation for all;  $12 billion would cover reproductive health for all women;  $13 billion would give every person on earth basic health and nutrition; and $6 billion would provide basic education for all.  From: "A Global Marshall Plan to Fight Terrorism," by Richard C. Bell and Michael Renner, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C.

7. Pentti Malaska: This action by the Islamic Council took place on 10/10/01.

8. Actually, the UN acted quickly after the September 11th catastrophe. Anti- terrorism resolution 1373 (2001) was adopted by the Security Council at its 4385th meeting, on 28 September 2001.

9. Ayeda Husain Naqvi writes in The Rise of the Muslim Marine (NewsLine, July 1996, 75-77) that while hate crimes against Muslims rise all over the world, surprising the US military is one of the safest places to be a Muslim. Indeed, Qasem Ali Uda forecasts that in 20 years, 25% of all US marines will be Muslims. Given the incredible influence that that former military personnel have on US policies (i.e. a look at "Who's Who" in America shows that military background and law school education are the two common denominators on the resumes of America's most influential people), inclusion is the wisest policy.

10. Czeslaw Mesjasz, Cracow University of Economics, “Security, Complex Social Systems And The Threat Of Terrorism Before And After 11 September,” e-mail: mesjaszc@ae.krakow.pl


Initiated and Edited by Ted Gordon

Mr. Theodore Jay Gordon is a futurist; he is Senior Research Fellow for the Millennium Project of the American Council of the United Nations University. The Millennium Project, which he first proposed in 1988, is a global activity that links futurists, scholars, and political and corporate decision makers in a structured inquiry into global issues and solutions. Mr. Gordon started The Futures Group in 1971 and retired as its President and Chairman in 1990. He has invented many methods of futures research and was an early contributor to the Delphi method while a consultant to RAND.



New York University’s Interactive Telecommunications Program scenarios:

An Empire Stretched Too Thin: US caught in never-ending quagmire

International McCarthyism: US wins, and becomes a social-control-oriented corporate state

Black Market World: War leads to fragmentation, "gated nations," a war between rich and poor nations, and increased reliance on underground economies

Gloom and Boom: Pakistan goes radical-Islamic, leading to nuclear attacks and Chernobyls everywhere

Blooming World: The only optimistic future of the five, in which the war's imperatives change the culture for the better



Notes On The Construction Of Scenarios

Most scenario studies begin with a definition of the major drivers to establish a frame of reference for the scenario set and to establish the independence of each. In an ideal world the choice of axes would have formed the first round of this inquiry, but time pressures required that the work proceed with a nominated scenario space. The axes originally suggested were:

a) response to terrorism: vigilante vs. rule of law,
b) technological sophistication: low to high (both offensive and defensive)
c) leadership: inspired to insipid.

Thus eight scenarios were defined by permutations of the extremes:

1) Vigilante, high tech, inspired leadership;
2) Rule of law, high tech, inspired leadership;
3) Vigilante, low tech, inspired leadership;
4) Rule of law, low tech, inspired leadership;
5) Vigilante, high tech, insipid leadership
6) Rule of law, high tech, insipid leadership
7) Vigilante, low tech, insipid leadership
8) Rule of law, low tech, insipid leadership.

One person (Kennedy) suggested four other axes:

Global Economic Expansion (high or low).
Perception of Threat (high/low)
Global Integration (economic, political, cultural, social, etc.) increasing v. decreasing
Structure of Terrorist Organization(s):  centralized v. fragmented

Another person (A. Kidder) suggested that the leadership axis be changed from insipid/ inspired to ethical/ unethical.

Wendell Bell asked: “Can’t a response be both high tech AND low tech at the same time?   I suspect that if the US sends in special forces in an effort to capture bin Laden, his lieutenants and his cadre of hardcore followers that, while most of our most massive weapons may be of little use, the entire range of technology may be used—from the highest tech communications, helicopters off carriers, etc. to one man crawling on his belly in a cave and hand-to-hand combat.”

He also observed: “inspired-insipid leadership seems open to any interpretation the analyst wishes to apply.  There are people who might think that carpet-bombing Afghanistan was inspired leadership, while others would think it insipid.” And suggested other axes including concern about human well-being and recognition of human fallibility.

Several participants thought that a normative/ exploratory division might be more productive.

Kamal Mahoud suggested that some scenarios be constructed from the point of view of those involved, including an extremists’ scenario. It would indeed be interesting to see an extremist normative scenario.

Paul Wildman submitted a ninth scenario designed around another set of axes: Activist, appropriate tech, collective leadership

At least three other participants suggested that the framework be dropped altogether since it appeared to be too constraining and limiting, at least for this point in the development of the analysis. In the end, the framework was tabled.
 



Millennium Project home page
Questionnaire on policies that may contribute to counter terrorism