Tuesday 17 February 1998
9:30 Self-Introductions of Participants
10:00 Goals and Objectives of the Meeting
10:20 1997 Global Lookout Study
11:45 Continue discussion
12:15 Lessons and Questions of History
1:30 Global Scenarios (Exploratory and Normative)
2:30 Environmental Security study
Uses of the 1997 State of the Future Report:
7:00 Dinner (all invited to One Washington
Circle private room for the participants)
Wednesday, 18 February
9:30 Continue reports from the Nodes
10:30 Discussion of Ways to Improve the Project
11:45 How to bring results to Decision Makers
1:00 Plans for 1998-99 Activities
Derry Allen, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Miguel Angel, South American Node, Ciencia y Tecnica Univ., Buenos Aires
Mohsen Bahrami, Tehran Node, Amir Kabir University, Tehran, Iran
Henry Cole, The Futures Group International
Tom Crumm, General Motors Company
Nadezhda Gaponenko, Moscow Node, Center for Sci & Indust. Policy, Moscow
Cecile Goli, UNESCO, Washington Office
Hazel Henderson, Alan F. Kay and Hazel Henderson Foundation for Social Innovation
Michael Kaericher, Ford Motor Company
Anandhavalli Mahadevan, India Node, Madurai Kamaraj University, Madurai, India
David Mercer, London Node, The Futures Observatory, Open University, London
Jill Montgomery, Monsanto Company
Pavel Novacek, Czech/Slovak Node, Palacky University, Olomouc, Czechia
Charles Perrottet, The Futures Group
Jamie K. Reaser, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C.
Stan Rosen, Hughes Satellite Communications
Peter Rzeszotarski, Army Environmental Policy Institute
Bob Utter, The Principal Financial Group
Bob Valario, US Dept of Energy
Patricia I. Vásquez, S.American Node
Rusong Wang, Beijing Node, The Ecological Society of China
Millennium Project staff:
Ted Gordon, co-director
Jerome Glenn, co-director
Elizabeth Florescu, administrative assistant
Barry Bluestein, project associate
Christopher Cole, intern
Maria Mateo, intern
The working draft of the 1998 State of the Future (98 SOF) was distributed to the attendees. Their comments, additions, and corrections were requested to be submitteed two weeks after the meeting. The results of the Global Lookout, Scenario Construction (exoloratory and normative), Lessons and Questions from History, Environmental Security, and Scanning to support these activities was given during the first day. The overhead charts used for this briefing has been circulated to the Planning Committee. The complete results will be available in the 1998 State of the Future and later on the project's URL. Hence, they are not repeated here. Instead, items suggested during the meeting that should be considered for the final draft of the 98 SOF are listed below.
Global Lookout Study: Display relationships among the 15 issues and opportunities. Consider merging the two to show accumulative effect of the project. Documenting a reasonable range of views is a valuable contribution. Interest in sustainable developments was way ahead of all other opportunities. Include explanation of how the Panel for Rounds 1 &2 were chosen as well as the Round 3 Interview panel. Consider creating a causality chart with meta-outcomes and meta-strategies. Include themes from the interviews by nodes and regions.
Lessons and Questions of History: Consider New World New Mind by Paul Ehrlich & Robert Ornstein and Betrayal of Science and Reason- Ehrlichs. On the Applicability of Lessons of history chart, use "Lower and higher" instead of "low and high" om historical validity. Put the questions on the Informatin we are collecting chart on the MP URL.
Global Exploratory Scenarios: Add wording: "based on the use of this model, the following conclusions can be drawn."
Nodes: Increase communications among the Nodes via Internet mulit-media
Consider a third day of the planning committee meetings for Node training and management.
Instead of shortening the time from early warning to "political decisions" it should be to "policy implimentation."
2:30 Environmental Security study
3:00 Uses of the 1997 State of the Future Report
Czech & Slovak Node
South American Node (in Buenos Aires)
South Pacific Node
Some of the elements of the plan, naturally, depend on the level of
funding that is available and
therefore the activities listed below are designated by priority.
1. Continue the Global Lookout panel activity. Working with the Millennium Project Nodes, the panel will be extended in size, geography and depth. The panel will continue its focus on the future of the planet and the human condition by conducting three studies:
3. Complete the special study on environmental security.
4. Produce the 1999 State of the Future as an accumulation of previous work
5. Conduct two meetings of the Planning Committee and sponsors to set goals and review progress. The first of these will take place at Motorola University on July 16-17, 1998.
6. Continue work on exploratory scenario development. Using the scenarios developed earlier by the Project, test the policies that seem promising in the contexts of the scenarios to examine how the changing circumstances may help or hinder implementation. In addition, the Project will begin to identify means by which users may, independently, manipulate interactive models that modify the scenarios.
7. Move from normative scenario sketches to full scenarios. The Project has produced several normative scenarios and investigated criteria for judging the adequacy of normative scenarios. Now the work will be carried forward to develop more complete scenarios.
8. Increase the activities of the Nodes by encouraging them to develop nested scenarios and other materials particularly germane to their interests.
9. Facilitate the further use of the Millennium Project material by research and policy making bodies.
10. Extend the Project's scenario bibliography and scanning activities.
11. Pursue means for providing multi-year extended and continuous funding for the Project, including submitting proposals to funding agencies and appropriate foundations.
Pursue the "Lessons and Questions from History" study. In this panel based study, futurists will rate lessons of history developed last year by historians.
Increase educational uses of the Project's materials, including world games and educational units, and lecturing on request to sponsors and others.
Consider means by which the results of the project can be more effectively brought to the attention of decision makers.
Given added funding, initiate study of "Methods for Determining and
Improving the Stability of Sociopolitical Systems."
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